Housing
18 bullish · 11 bearish · 7 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+16Foreclosures, affordability, and who is willing to call a bottom.
The count, last 30 days: 6 bullish, 3 bearish. The tape leans bullish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape
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Sep 07
bullishbearishclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bearish
Heath says a rising long end pushes mortgages up, real estate down and cost of capital higher across Western economies
So this affects everything, 30 year mortgages, real estate markets gonna go down, the affordability for the whole economy is gonna go up, cost of capital basically for not just the US, but I'd say kind of broader Western governments and industries are gonna go higher.
Bearish
Peter Schiff expects US real estate prices to be lower five years from now measured in gold (and in real terms), with nominal direction left open.
I think that US real estate prices will be lower five years from now than they are today, certainly in terms of gold.
Gold since this was said: ▼ -0.4% · 4,394 → 4,375 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Paffrath says on his 10-year chart real estate is closer to the bottom while stocks are closer to the top, which is why he is bullish on real estate.
if the stock market, in my opinion, is closer to the top, my take, and this is sort of my 10-year thesis on my 10-year chart, then I think real estate is pretty well over here, closer to the bottom.
Neutral
Kevin Paffrath tells viewers that sellers outnumbering buyers has no bearing on the direction of home prices.
oh my gosh, home sellers outnumber home buyers has no bearing, you know, just because that's happening. It has no bearing on what the potential is for the housing market in terms of pricing.
Bullish
Paffrath tells viewers most US housing markets are seeing price growth now, with laggards bottoming.
most of the housing market is seeing price expansion right now across the country.
Neutral
Paffrath tells viewers overbuilt Sun Belt markets already fell 25-30% peak to trough and that is behind us.
We've seen 25% declines in areas like Austin, Texas, Peak, Trough. In some areas it's been 30%.
Bullish
Paffrath tells viewers this is the decade to buy real estate.
because we think this is the decade to buy real estate
Bullish
Paffrath tells viewers the housing price reset has already occurred in many markets, i.e. housing has bottomed.
So I actually think the reset for housing prices has already occurred in many markets.
Bullish
Paffrath tells viewers that starting from scratch he would put most money in real estate and some in stocks.
I would probably put most of my money into real estate and some of it into stocks.
Bullish
Matt Ingram says the slowdown in Australian mortgage applications is overblown and longer-term housing loan demand will be very strong, which supports CBA.
we think longer term housing demand is going to be very strong, and that's good for CBA as well
Bearish
Kudlow tells Fox Business housing is not good, citing falling existing home sales.
housing is not good. We had existing home sales fell again yesterday, the day before as reported.
Neutral
Kudlow tells Fox Business the housing cost problem is a supply problem, fixable by building or making it easier for owners to sell.
the housing cost problem is a supply problem okay it's not a demand problem it's a supply problem not enough houses on the market
Bullish
Yardeni tells Lake boomers not selling constrains housing supply, so US home prices keep rising.
I mean, the Baby Boomers, they're not selling their houses. They're not moving into smaller apartment buildings. As a result, the supply of housing is rather constrained. And so home prices are going up.
Bearish
Minto Group CEO on Canadian housing; too expensive to build, unaffordable to buy.
here where houses are almost too expensive to build yet unaffordable for Canadians to rent or buy.
Bullish
Developer teases unannounced corporate relocations to Miami. EVENT: will, undated.
So although we keep hearing about the ones that have been announced, there are many other corporate moves coming to Miami that have not been announced that are in the works. And at some point in the near future, we'll become public.
Bearish
housing affordability fixes from DC before the midterms
“the prospect of there being any kind of real landmark legislation coming together seems pretty unlikely”
Bullish
predicts SpaceX IPO 100-millionaires flood LA luxury markets
“You are absolutely changing a market and the heavy hitters. They're gonna go to Beverly Hills.”
Bullish
early SpaceX investors lining up luxury buys ahead of the Aug 6 cash-out window
“already starting to show them properties in anticipation of the August 6, you know, it's the first opportunity to be able to cash out”
Bullish
caps the California-to-Florida migration segment
“Florida is always going to be Florida, and we're becoming really the epicenter of the world”
Bearish
input costs for housing. ATTRIBUTION CAUTION: window interleaves anchor narration; do not card without frame-check
“lumber is now back to the highest it's been in a year”
Bullish
He backs the thesis with his own allocation: I have invested about half my net worth in buying really high-end homes in four of those five @53:22. Rationale is that income inequality will run unabated, concentrating wealth in the top 0.1 percent, plus psychic income and no daily scorecard vs public stocks. He concedes it partly violates his own diversification rule.
“I think anyone worth over $50 million is gonna have at least one home in one of five places, Dubai, London, Palm Beach, New York, or Aspen.”
Bearish
Explaining June's pending-home-sales dip ('we got back to bombing Iran' @0:22 - headline risk). Builder sentiment fell to 34: 'We are now 15 months south of the reading of 40' @0:45 (50 = neutral); spec building is down, existing market 'frozen' by rate lock, and construction is 'consistently two to 300,000 workers short' @2:12. Only high-end/luxury holding up. This is the title quote.
“We've got way, the uncertainty in home building right now and uncertainty in home buying is really dragging down the market.”
Bearish
Answer to whether contractors and developers will stay away from NYC because of Mayor Mamdani's new second-home tax (in effect this month, already hitting luxury sales per the host). 'We're going to drive wealthy families out of New York.' @3:20; 'This is rent control in a different guise.' @3:33; predicts flight 'across the river to New Jersey, or they're going to go up to Connecticut' @3:48, citing Rhode Island's 'Taylor Swift tax' as precedent.
“I do, I think it's going to have a trickle down effect. May start at 10 million, when's it going to be five million?”
Bearish
'look at what happened when we dropped rates to 3%... It won't help you because you're still gonna pay more' (@25:51). Cites Warsh telling him rates look neutral 'everything but housing' (@23:49) and CNBC survey showing housing is the No. 1 issue for 18-34 year olds. Teaser duplicate at 20:31; in-context occurrence filed.
“Bring the rate down, that'll improve affordability. Not in a situation where we have a supply deficit, right?”
Bullish
His three reasons the entry point is 'interesting today' (@23:33): relative value, fundamentals ('we have never really seen fundamentals this strong' in early recovery, @23:47), and 'a very durable recovery' (@23:55).
“Stocks are expensive relative to real estate. Real estate's down 25% relative to its peaks, pretty interest rate a cycle. Equities are up 60%. That's interesting to investors today.”
Bullish
New apartment development 'in the last 15 years, hasn't been lower than it is today' while demand exceeds supply even in the Sun Belt (@29:00-29:52); 'it's never been cheaper... to rent than to own' (@28:12).
“I believe that industrial and residential will outperform retail, which has been the best performing sector over the last two years. But we do think that those three are going to produce good risk-adjusted returns for investors over the next five years.”
Bullish
Fairweather tells Ed Elson she remains optimistic the 21st Century Road to Housing Act will ultimately become law despite Trump refusing to sign it.
it is disappointing that it's not going to become law today. But I remain optimistic that this will get over the finish line.
Neutral
Fairweather tells Elson institutional investors are a symptom, not the cause, of US housing unaffordability.
I do not think that private equity or institutional investors are the reason why housing has gotten so unaffordable. I think they are more a symptom than a cause.
Neutral
Fairweather tells Elson the US median home price crossed $400,000 for the first time the prior week per Redfin.
it was actually just last week that the median home price crossed over $400,000 for the first time, according to our Redfin data.
Neutral
Fairweather tells Elson 30-year fixed mortgage rates rose from 5.99% the day before the Iran conflict to above 6.6%.
rate were 5.99 percent the day before the conflict in Iran started, and now they're above 6.6 percent.
Bullish
Fairweather tells Elson that even if the housing bill passes, nominal home prices will not fall; the bill would only slow their rise.
I don't think that home prices will go down in terms of the sticker price that you see, but what will happen is that home prices won't go up as much as they would in the absence of this bill
Bullish
Fairweather tells Elson Redfin projects US home prices will rise over the next decade but slower than wages and inflation.
we're projecting that over the next decade, home prices will still go up, but they will go up slower than wages and slower than inflation
Neutral
Fairweather tells Elson pro-supply (YIMBY) advocates are winning at federal, state and local levels.
I think in general, the Yimbees, the people who have been advocating for more housing supply in general are winning all across the country.
Bearish
Foreclosures “at a six-year high… up, get this folks, 26% year over year. There was 119,000 foreclosure filings in the first quarter of 2026” (citing WSJ/ATTOM)
Bullish
Peter Schiff says if the Fed cut rates, mortgage rates would probably rise rather than fall, as they did after the last 100bp of cuts.
if the Fed did cut interest rates, not only is there no guarantee that mortgage rates wouldn't go down, they'll probably go up.
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.