Global Equities
2 bull · 2 bear · 1 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+3Markets beyond the United States: who is buying the rest of the world, and why.
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bull
India's monsoon deficit is 'quite large and some 60 percent of districts have deficient rainfall' @27:21; 'the production of maize is going to be lower, the production of cotton may be lower, and especially pulses and oil seeds production may be lower' @31:08-31:21; overall foodgrain output should hold (only ~5% drop even in the 2015-16 double drought) @30:49-31:02. Distribution of rain 'from now till the end of August' is the swing factor @31:57.
“But I think we will see inflation in pulses, we will see inflation in oil seeds, as I said. And therefore, food inflation may cross 6-7% consumer food inflation.”
Neutral
Also: 'I do not see any increase in the minimum support price' @35:08, though a drought bonus is possible and any rabi hike would stay 'in the range of 3 to 6 percent' @35:25; on fertilizer he sees no crisis: 'I do not think that we are going to have any serious crisis of fertilizers, even in rabi crop' @41:36. Canonical mapped to inflation as nearest existing key (no India topic exists); flagging for topic review.
“So elections are due in several large states in 2027. So I do not think that we will see any serious reforms in agriculture policy.”
Bear
Cites 'SK Hynix, their biggest company, has $20 billion in levered ETFs. For comparison, Nvidia has around $5 billion' (@1:49) on a stock a fifth Nvidia's size; but adds 'I don't think that's bearish for US stocks in any way' (@2:18).
“So I think what you're seeing is excessive amounts of leverage coupled with a lot of speculation, a lot of excitement.”
Bear
On SK Hynix's record 15% one-day drop and Korea's $9B single-stock leveraged ETF boom. He notes margin loans on top of leveraged products is 'leveraged squared' @21:23 and says of the selloff 'big moves make sense, given the volatility you had on the way up and the leverage that we know was in the trade' @17:37. Rising equity funding costs signaled the strain.
“that was a big bell ringing saying, hey, the system cannot accommodate all this demand for leverage on semiconductors. And in particular, these memory stocks.”
Bull
Own equities outside America; they do okay over 10-20 years
Jeremy Grantham · GMO · Diary of a CEOHead to head
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.