Global Equities

On the national team returning to support Chinese stocks after the Star 50 fell 17% last week, plus the Kimi K3 'deep seek moment'. He calls state support 'a fairly positive signal, especially considering, you know, valuations in China. Again, relative to U.S. peers have been so depressed' @60:20.

Anchor cites BI's call that Hong Kong housing is ready for a sustainable rebound with secondary prices jumping 19% over this year and next @91:11. Wong sees another 4% in the second half after 7% year to date ('to both 11%' reads as 'to boost 11%' this year), on rental growth near 5% a year, student and work-visa inflows, plus a 5% office rent growth forecast for 2026-27 @93:54.

Host notes the market is pricing about 40 basis points of BoE hikes despite UK inflation at a 15-month low @1:37. He calls the morning CPI a 'third consecutive downside surprise' about 50bp below BoE forecasts @1:43, and says Bloomberg Economics sees roughly 3% inflation even as US-Iran escalation lifts energy, below the BoE's 3.5-4% danger zone.

After a Q1 earnings beat he says last quarter's demand ran '8% plus' @41:51, calls Indian prices 'sustainable' while US and European prices have risen more, and projects raw-material costs easing: 'We would project that the cost would come down in the subsequent quarters' @42:37. Reaffirms capacity expansion to 62 million tons in India (80 million with JVs) by 2032 @44:52. On the Iran war, cost impact was covered by price recovery.

Asked what concerns him about building biotech companies today, he says companies like his 'would be far more difficult to build today, in part because we don't have an industrial policy, a nationwide commitment to science' @36:40, that the erosion is 'more acute care now over the last two to three years' @37:05 (garbled, likely 'acute here'), and that the slide runs from 'commoditization of pharmaceutical ingredients' to supply chains, clinical trials and 'ultimately to medicines for patients' @38:26.

'No such thing as a value trap' @27:16; he says his cheap UK tech holdings keep getting bought out, 'I had like two last week' @23:12 including easyJet, because Americans pay up for names at 'one and a half time sales' @23:36. He hopes new PM Burnham helps but is skeptical of government.

With Healy just appointed chancellor after gilts closed, implying higher defense spending, and the government cutting taxes on energy bills with funding unclear, he notes UK 10-year yields were 'around about 5% yesterday already' and adds 'in the short term, UK paperwork probably underform that of the US' @1:15 (garble of 'UK paper will probably underperform'), with 'a bit of a runway where... we are going to see more fiscal angst' @1:31.

Korea reopening after regulators suspended new single-stock leveraged-ETF listings; 'most of that selling was pretty much done... buy the rumor, sell the fact' @8:33-8:39; markets 'might not finish too badly, providing that we don't get any oil prices that... suddenly jump to $100' @8:25. On the China-AI shock: 'For now, it looks like a knee-jerk reaction' @10:17.

Stated as conditional on wages: 'if we see that structural tightening in the labor market continuing to feed through to wages' @14:25; she frames the BoJ as heading to 'that terminal rate' for a post-pandemic economy that 'needs an interest rate that is higher than where it was prior to the pandemic' @13:42, with yen at ~162 and June CPI due Friday.

Asked about Kimi K3 and Alibaba's Qwen; she adds Korea's near-term shield: Korean technology 'comes with a geopolitical security lens... They are a more secure partner to deal with than China' @17:51-18:01, though that edge 'might deteriorate' over the medium term as China builds trust with the West.

'That's the reason why we're still keeping a constructive view on the medium term trajectory of the market' @51:52; on valuation: 'now we see forward P multiples trading close to six or seven for some names, and that's quite compelling for the medium to long term' @55:12; memory makers' long-term price agreements and US export controls 'still keep the dominant position for these names' @53:18.

Confirms the target of roughly doubling defense-and-space revenue from fiscal 2025 to 2030 after Japan lifted its defense-export ban ('this is going to have a very significant business impact' @68:17); separately: 'We hope that by September we'll be able to announce our plan to establish the joint venture' consolidating power chips with Rohm and Toshiba @67:18. First airing of this answer @43:42 is garbled as 'US$800 billion'; the 69:08 re-air gives the correct '800 billion yen'.

He owns EWY for memory exposure: 'Hynex and Samsung make up 50% of the Korean stock market' @4:17, and 'the Hynix Samsung trade through the ETF in Korea is cheaper' than Micron @6:12. Part of a broader push to diversify client money out of North America.

India's monsoon deficit is 'quite large and some 60 percent of districts have deficient rainfall' @27:21; 'the production of maize is going to be lower, the production of cotton may be lower, and especially pulses and oil seeds production may be lower' @31:08-31:21; overall foodgrain output should hold (only ~5% drop even in the 2015-16 double drought) @30:49-31:02. Distribution of rain 'from now till the end of August' is the swing factor @31:57.

Also: 'I do not see any increase in the minimum support price' @35:08, though a drought bonus is possible and any rabi hike would stay 'in the range of 3 to 6 percent' @35:25; on fertilizer he sees no crisis: 'I do not think that we are going to have any serious crisis of fertilizers, even in rabi crop' @41:36. Canonical mapped to inflation as nearest existing key (no India topic exists); flagging for topic review.

'if you just take FXI right now, that's up and about to break out over the 50-day moving average after being so bearish while the S&P was making new highs.' @6:44. Framing: China 'does things faster and cheaper' in AI/chips; Nvidia still works with China, which is why it holds up better than other semis.

Cites 'SK Hynix, their biggest company, has $20 billion in levered ETFs. For comparison, Nvidia has around $5 billion' (@1:49) on a stock a fifth Nvidia's size; but adds 'I don't think that's bearish for US stocks in any way' (@2:18).

On SK Hynix's record 15% one-day drop and Korea's $9B single-stock leveraged ETF boom. He notes margin loans on top of leveraged products is 'leveraged squared' @21:23 and says of the selloff 'big moves make sense, given the volatility you had on the way up and the leverage that we know was in the trade' @17:37. Rising equity funding costs signaled the strain.