The Crash Question
12 bullish · 41 bearish · 3 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+32Is this market a bubble about to answer for itself? Valuation alarms against the case that this time earns it.
The count, last 30 days: 6 bullish, 16 bearish. The tape leans bearish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape vs the talk
The line is S&P 500, last 90 days. Each dot is a claim as it landed on the tape: filled is bullish, outlined is bearish. Tap a dot to read it. Where the tape went after is context, not a verdict.
The tape
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Aug 24
Sep 07
bullishbearishclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bearish
McGlone tells Lin the hike-priced, volatility-season scenario is very bad for US stocks and for the metals and Bitcoin that trade as stock puppets.
And so I look at this scenario as very bad for all major-- this stock market, and mostly notably the stock puppets, the stock puppets.
Bitcoin since this was said: ▼ -1.7% · 78,283 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
McGlone tells Lin he is not more bullish; US stocks are in a historically silly (overvalued) stage, with only a relief rally if oil drops.
But no, I think we're in a pretty severe historic silly stage
Bearish
McGlone tells Lin the reversion end game might all play out by the end of 2026 with the midterms as the trigger.
but this might all pan out by the end of the year and midterms can be a good trigger.
Bearish
Wilson says a liquidity tightening from massive corporate and sovereign issuance could arrive in 2027, but he is not ready to call it yet
But I do think in 2027, we could see a liquidity tightening, some of which is just a massive issuance from corporate and from sovereign.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.6% · 7,636 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Wilson says an oil-driven liquidity drain plus heavy issuance could bring an S&P correction within 30 days, but a correction, not the end of the bull market
that's another reason why I think we could have a correction in the next 30 days. But it's a correction. It's not the end.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.6% · 7,636 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Steve Weiss on CNBC's Investment Committee says risk/reward for US stocks has worsened but investors should hold quality positions rather than sell and pay taxes
i see the risk reward has changed but that doesn't mean you should sell long-standing positions and and pay taxes on them even capital gains opposed to ordinary tax i think you hold on to quality investments
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.6% · 7,636 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Peter Schiff says if the 10-year breaks above 5-5.5% and the 30-year tops 6% he would expect a meaningful stock pullback with forced selling of the mega-cap tech names.
But if we start to get a bigger move up, I would not be surprised to see a meaningful pullback in the stock market.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.1% · 7,674 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Todd Horwitz says US stocks are at the beginning of a 40-60% sell-off he has been looking for.
But my bias is certainly to the downside. I think we're just in the beginning of that 40 to 60% sell-off that I'm looking for.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 7,653 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Todd Horwitz expects the equity sell-off to accelerate after the thin late-August period, i.e. after Labor Day 2026.
And I think that we'll see some acceleration once we get out of this next two-week cycle and after Labor Day, I think we'll see some acceleration to the downside.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 7,653 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Paffrath tells viewers the stock-market bubble can run a while longer but has limited room, so he keeps low debt.
Like the bubble could keep going for a little while longer, but we haven't really had this side since 2008. So we got some room, but not infinite room.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Julian Emanuel of Evercore writes (read on air by Bloomberg) that stocks' long-term trajectory is higher but a bear market will happen because AI does not negate the cycle.
Even as the long-term trajectory of stocks remains higher, a bear market will happen.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Julian Emanuel of Evercore tells Bloomberg that with the AI bull market nearly four years old and financial conditions the loosest this century, he is concerned about complacency.
that financial conditions are as the loosest that they've been this entire century, we're a little bit concerned about that bit of complacency.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Neutral
Stephanie Guild (Robinhood) tells Guy Johnson to expect parabolic moves followed by fast crashes that act as clearing events, so everyday investors must get used to higher volatility.
you could have these you know kind of parabolic moves in the market and then speed crashes and that becomes a clearing event and things move on. So I definitely think players in the market especially the everyday investor has to be more used to higher volatility.
VIX since this was said: ▲ +19.9% · 14.25 → 17.08 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Leon Cooperman tells CNBC there are signs of euphoria in the market and he would approach stocks very conservatively, while admitting markets have done better than he expected.
I think there are signs of euphoria in the market. So I would approach these very conservatively.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Leon Cooperman tells CNBC it is not different this time and inflation is higher, rejecting the AI-exceptionalism case for stocks.
So I don't think it's different this time. I think we have higher inflation.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis that if Anthropic slows compute purchases because demand is lacking there will be a pile-up down the SpaceX/Nvidia/TSMC chain, but not if it is merely losing share to rivals.
It's very simple. If he's slamming on the brakes because there's not demand, there will be a pile up.
Nvidia since this was said: ▼ -3.0% · 225.2 → 218.4 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Gavin Baker tells Calacanis and Sacks that macro and value investors calling AI a subsidized circular-financing bonfire are wrong because the overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable across the chain.
They're just wrong. The overwhelming majority of tokens are profitable for everyone in the chain.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.5% · 7,786 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Siegel tells CNBC last week's liquidity event was a clearing event and market leverage is not excessive.
And I think that gave confidence to people. There's some leverage built in there, but it's not excessive.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 7,799 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Mike Santoli (CNBC) says on CNBC's market close update that the window for a market reset passed and stocks snapped back, but he is on alert that conditions look a little too benign.
And you've had this partial snapback. But I'm on alert for maybe things seem a little too benign.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 7,799 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Clem Chambers tells David Lin that with Xi Jinping visiting the US around September 26, the authorities will not let the market crash before then; he expects the S&P 500 to stay supported by liquidity injections.
President Xi Xiping is coming to America on September the 26th. That's the big, hairy deal. And, you know, I don't think the market is going to go down or crash or anything horrible will happen to it before then.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.7% · 7,799 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Mitchell Green says AI is in a bubble that will probably pop, with near-term overbuild likely, even though the technology is transformational.
Yeah, it will be a bubble and it will probably pop. Will we probably overbuild at some point for the near term? Probably.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 7,748 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Tiffany McGhee (Pivotal Advisors) tells Bloomberg she does not think AI is a bubble; it is the next wave like the internet.
I know that there's some people that think that this is a bubble. I don't think so
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 7,748 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Thomas Hayes (Great Hill Capital) tells David Lin the current AI market is not a 2000-style top in his view, but there will be painful drawdowns before a final parabolic move five to seven years out.
which we believe it is not, there will be pain along the way onto that final parabolic move, which time, whether that's five or seven years out, when people realize the emperor has no clothes
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -2.0% · 7,748 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Yardeni tells Lake there will be no recession, earnings keep surprising up and the stock market keeps going higher.
I don't think we're going to have a recession, and I think earnings will continue to surprise to the upside, and that'll continue to drive the market higher.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▼ -1.8% · 7,728 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
His mechanism: 'when you cycle against that next year it's going to look like growth is really decelerating inflation's coming down that's not a great environment for for risky assets' @31:43, i.e. base effects off the high-growth, high-inflation first half of 2026. He simultaneously concedes AI names 'would not surprise us if the enthusiasm and greed around this trend continues and they move higher later into the year' @31:21. Teaser duplicate at 0:00; this is the title's 'deeper correction' call. Market held 'fully valued' with Oxbow at 60% stocks / 40% short-term Treasuries @1:53.
“we are looking ahead to 2027 and we do think that there's a potential for a deeper decline next year”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.8% · 7,458 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Neutral
Clip aired inside a market-open news wrap on a day chip names were broadly down 2-3% (Micron, Intel, Qualcomm -3%, Nvidia -2%).
“We're certainly not in the camp of saying things are wildly overvalued, but there's a lot of investor behavior that's somewhat reminiscent of prior peaks, especially like the dot-com bubble.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.8% · 7,534 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Neutral
Clip aired to set up the bank-earnings segment; the remarks are from JPMorgan's Q2 earnings call 'earlier this week' (approx Jul 14, 2026). Continues: 'It's going to get a lot better than this. It can get better. But, you know, how much better? I don't know' @35:09. 'exuberant mark' is a transcription garble of 'market'.
“I just think we're in a very healthy, active exuberant mark with very high prices, very high volumes. We benefit from that. We just don't know how long it will continue.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.8% · 7,534 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
COLD-OPEN ONLY in this 12:39 cut - the 1927 line and 'I think the likelihood of a severe outcome is very high right now' @0:21 do not reappear in the body, which is excerpted from a longer interview. In-context corroboration in the body: 'the US is the most highly overvalued, highly leveraged' @8:47. The claim also headlines the video title.
“The stock market right now is more overvalued today than it has been over the last 150 years. The only period that was more overvalued than it is right now was 1927.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.8% · 7,534 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Answering whether something must break for precious metals to catch a bid: 'the US is the most highly overvalued, highly leveraged' @8:47, and once cracks appear he expects 'a flow of funds from all of these other major marketplaces... into gold and silver, which right now are incredibly teeny' @9:23. Also notes miners are 'almost like advanced growth stocks right now' buying back shares and paying down debt @10:10.
“And then with higher interest rates, falling dollar, a ballooning deficit, all of those are going to combine to put real downward pressure on the stock markets, especially the elevated leverage portions of those of the stock market”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.8% · 7,534 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Full framing: 'what we're looking at moving forward as the global economy sinks into the next recession is that they're all going to be spending more money' @11:45 - all central banks are already 'expanding their money supplies as much as they think they can get away with' @11:39. His stated main thesis: 'more money in the economy means higher gold prices and higher silver prices' @11:26. Explicit hedge: 'I just can't really say when anything like that is going to actually play out' @12:06.
“they're going to all have to borrow more money and therefore print more money. So I think that is on the agenda.”
Gold since this was said: ▲ +9.8% · 3,986 → 4,375 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Played clip from a Becky Quick interview about finding value in today's market; the anchor reports he 'simply said too many people are gambling' (paraphrase, secondhand) before the clip, and in the clip he compares the dynamic to state lotteries selling 'nothing but hope' @2:03.
“It's fair to say though, it's tougher to find cheap opportunities.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.3% · 7,572 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Adds: 'If the AI thing busts, it's gonna take your wealth and nobody voted for this' (@5:50); framed as a debate-opener, not a firm bust call (meaning-verified)
“The S&P is now an AI S&P. It's market weighted and the hyperscalers have driven the market.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.0% · 7,515 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Trump told Americans on live TV to buy a Dell computer; disclosures show he bought nearly $1M of Dell last year, Elson says
“Dell stock surged as much as 8% yesterday, not because of any material information or any news related to the company, but instead because the president pumped it”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.2% · 7,575 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
His 'kingmaker economy' thesis
“the best way to increase your stock price in America today isn't to improve your product or to sell more goods and services. It is to have your stock anointed by the high priest of American markets, aka the president.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.2% · 7,575 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
His 2026 sequence, called the biggest market bubble of all time:
“You'll see stocks down the S&P up to 50% within three months and the NASDAQ up to 60% and it'll happen so fast, then you'll panic and sell and then it'll bounce against that to say you're wrong and then it'll crash 80 to 90% in the next few years.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 7,544 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
“So we're like at a nervous top right now, kind of hitting sideways.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.7% · 7,537 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
“In a midterm election year, you expect the market to basically tank from the summer down to the October to November range.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.7% · 7,537 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
“Right now we are in a golden age… 401Ks are up at levels that they've never seen before, up 80 and 90%… 81 days, we have 81 records”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,483 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Lee says the sector-adjusted Shiller PE is not as stretched as the headline and has room to go higher.
So I think we have room for the Shiloh PE to be higher
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,483 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
“I'm anxious about this market in a lot of ways, because I look at, you know, the Shiller PE as an example, which is extremely high right now, basically coming up on dotcom territory.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.4% · 7,483 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
“We've just had the largest IPO in history with SpaceX which is… worth one and a half trillion dollars and… earns no money so there are all the signs of the latter stages of mania”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.0% · 7,440 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
“every single asset is overpriced because the money is underneath it is already insolvent.”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.0% · 7,440 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
“he's absolutely terrified that they're about to move in against the bond market and against the stock markets”
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.2% · 7,357 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Rick Rule says that if a credit- or tech-led crash comes, gold sells off first with everything else but the liquidity/QE response would be extremely bullish for gold.
And while the initial crash from a historical perspective would likely be tough on gold and gold stocks, the result of the policy prescription would be extremely bullish for gold.
Gold since this was said: ▲ +8.6% · 4,030 → 4,375 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Rick Rule thinks there might be a substantial market correction and holds liquidity for the possibility of a liquidity-driven crash, while calling his own near-term market view 'lousy'.
So despite the fact that I think there might be a substantial correction
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +3.2% · 7,357 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco he expects US stocks to fall 40-60% from here, while urging investors not to panic and to stay hedged.
And I don't want anybody to panic because I think we're gonna cut 40 to 60%.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 7,387 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Michael Oliver tells Kitco the S&P 500 will not break its momentum floor this quarter but will position to break it next quarter (Q3 2026).
However, we don't think it's gonna get there and break that structure this quarter. We think it's gonna position itself to break it next quarter.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +2.8% · 7,384 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Sentiment at record lows; the Fed put stops markets pricing risk
Kyla Scanlon · Author / commentator · InterviewBullish
Falling energy will drive the economy into prosperity
Dave Ramsey · Ramsey Solutions · Fox NewsBearish
David Friedberg tells All-In that the over-leveraged global system (310% debt/GDP) will inevitably break into inflation, currency debasement and money printing (no date).
The force of gravity is inevitable. The roller coaster will roll down. We will throw our hands in the air, and we will scream, whee, as we go for the ride. Global debt to GDP is 310%.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.6% · 7,473 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
David Friedberg tells All-In that record Japanese yields could catalyze a credit crisis via the carry trade (hedged).
but I would think that this is one of those things that could be a catalyst for a credit crisis because there's a lot of people that are in this carry trade.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +1.6% · 7,473 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Peter Schiff tells the interviewer the US is heading for a sovereign-debt and dollar crisis worse than 2008 (no date).
I think that there's a good indication that the U.S. is heading towards a worse financial crisis than what we had in 08, because I think this time it's going to be a sovereign debt crisis and a dollar crisis.
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +9.4% · 6,940 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
Sell all your US tech stocks; a 70% decline would not be unexpected
Jeremy Grantham · GMO · Diary of a CEOBearish
Not confident US equities will be intact in 5 to 10 years
Jeremy Grantham · GMO · Diary of a CEOBearish
When this bubble breaks, expect a recession among the worst since the Depression (1972 analogy)
Jeremy Grantham · GMO · Diary of a CEOOn the scoreboard
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.