The most argued-about stock on the board: deliveries, robotaxis, and the valuation fight.
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Bullleaning · 2026-07-18
Framing SpaceX as 'a bet on Musk,' Ives references his prior view that a Musk-consolidation acquisition of Tesla has over an 80% chance.
“like Tesla I've talked about, you know, the chances are over 80%, and we talked about before that they were gonna acquire Tesla.”
Dan Ives · Yorkville Ives & Co (per Bloomberg plate Jul 2026; formerly Wedbush) · Yahoo Finance ↗
Tesla since this was said: ▼ -15.3% · 380.8 → 322.5 · as of 2026-08-05
…a lot hard to replace with AI. Totally. I do worry about, well, what happens in some of these other countries that are doing the super entry level stuff? Because I think that is right for your place. So they'll have massive job loss. Why don't it be massive, but that's where the risk is. I mean, frankly, it 's not in the US. Maybe we're getting to some consensus here. Job displacement versus job loss. Here is Brett Adcock sharing what they 're doing at Figure. They had an eight- hour challenge to have this robot they're building stored packages, and they did it for 200 hours. That's today. This is the least good it will ever be. This is the worst it's going to ever be. These things are getting really good. I spent time with Elon. I've looked at Optimus. I can tell you Optimus is better than what Figure is doing. What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy are the least optimists inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every-- let me state this very clearly-- every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10 years. And it's starting today, just like the idea that you would put together some of this consumer electronic stuff in factories with humans has gone away over time. And other countries-- I think you're making a very good point here, Sacks-- are going to experience it first. In America, knowledge workers, the entrepreneurial spirit, I think we 're going to see a Cambrian explosion in…From: this video · 12 claims mined from it
“If you would normalize and say that gas prices year-over-year were unchanged, I still believe that they would have grown deliveries at 20 percent, which is an acceleration”
…Gene, I might have thought it's just a phenomenon of high gasoline prices. Well, Kelly, if we look back at what that impact was in the June quarter, gas prices average in the U.S. for up 33 percent, compared to the average per-gallon gas price in June of 2025. Now, most of those consumers, clearly there's been some benefit on that 25 percent growth that came from these higher gas prices, but my sense is that most of them think about these gas prices as transitory, is that the setup was clearly, the clear message from the White House was this would end quickly, and so, well, undoubtedly that pushed some sales into it. I think it was modest, and my best guess is that if you would normalize and say that gas prices year-over-year were unchanged, I still believe that they would have grown deliveries at 20 percent, which is an acceleration . Why are people suddenly, it's so odd to me that at the moment that, again, we used to get legions of Tesla fans on social media all the time. That's gone silent. Everyone's moved on, it seems. They're talking about SpaceX. The models are old. They haven't had a refresh in a while. Why is Tesla suddenly seeing such high demand? Well, the dynamic's pretty complicated, and it comes back to what we've seen over the past two years, this effectively, this EV winter, when sales were down one percent in calendar 24, down eight percent in calendar 25, and down, expected to be basically down two percent. I think there's been some pent-up…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it
“There's been some pent-up demand that has pulled some of that through, and also I just think that consumers are becoming progressively more open to electrification.”
…and say that gas prices year-over-year were unchanged, I still believe that they would have grown deliveries at 20 percent, which is an acceleration . Why are people suddenly, it's so odd to me that at the moment that, again, we used to get legions of Tesla fans on social media all the time. That's gone silent. Everyone's moved on, it seems. They're talking about SpaceX. The models are old. They haven't had a refresh in a while. Why is Tesla suddenly seeing such high demand? Well, the dynamic's pretty complicated, and it comes back to what we've seen over the past two years, this effectively, this EV winter, when sales were down one percent in calendar 24, down eight percent in calendar 25, and down, expected to be basically down two percent. I think there's been some pent-up demand that has pulled some of that through, and also I just think that consumers are becoming progressively more open to electrification. I think that that seems to go in the face of what we've heard about big gas, but the numbers aren't line. I think that there is some substance here. There's another small factor around Do ge, which is effectively that ending a year ago, I think has created some benefit, a little bit of a tailwind in terms of the brand, but the bigger picture here is that this delivery number, this is exactly what Tesla investors have been craving for for the past two years, when that EV winter started, and even if you discount it, it's still a meaningful…From: this video · 3 claims mined from it