Bonds
5 bullish · 5 bearish · 2 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+7What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bullish
buy call on oversold duration after the Warsh-week plunge
“the bond market is being a little bit riotous at the moment. And so we would actually be buyers of some of this oversold duration”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.75% → 4.94% (+20 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
rates must rise on deficit plus tech bond supply; weights = rates garble
“between the government deficit, between the tech bond issuance that is happening this year, weights need to go higher”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.75% → 4.94% (+20 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
near-term funding costs rise to attract capital
“in the short term, the funding cost is going to have to go up”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.75% → 4.94% (+20 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Neutral
the bond vigilantes will keep pushing yields up until Warsh actually hikes
“if he's gonna talk hawkish but not actually act hawkish, then they're gonna have to continue to raise rates”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Neutral
victory lap on opposing the 2024 cuts
“the bond market agreed with me, my friends, the bond vigilantes, took bond yields up 100 basis points. So did the Fed really ease?”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
avoid long-end duration on Fed-injected inflation risk premium
“from our perspective I think we are more wary of that duration risk further out”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
the long-end selloff misreads softening inflation; market will reassess
“the market is not always correct about this assumption. And to me at this point in time is particularly wrong”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
extend duration at the very long end as risk compensation, though maybe not really in the US (prefers Japan, UK, Germany); the opposite side of Al-Hussainy
“there's a lot of value on the very long end of the curve because it's compensating for a lot of risk”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
the long-duration trade is not really in the US but in Japan, UK, Germany
“if I look at a space like Japan like UK like Germany to me is a really low hanging fruits and fixed income”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
front end yields 40bp over the long end
“the front end of the yield curve looks more attractive today than the long end while still producing you know similar type of income level”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.66% → 4.94% (+28 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
Bearish
why the 30-year sold off
“The long bond doesn't like that they're not fighting inflation.”
US 30-yr yield since this was said: 5.20% → 5.28% (+8 bp) · as of 2026-09-09
Bearish
positioning against duration. scope is long-duration bonds; she is bullish equities in the same tape
“we've remained very short duration in terms of our portfolio”
US 10-yr yield since this was said: 4.64% → 4.94% (+30 bp) · as of 2026-09-10
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.
We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.