The count, last 30 days: 1 bull, 4 bear. The tape leans bear. A count, not a verdict.
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What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own
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Bearleaning · 2026-08-05
SpaceX fell after hours on AI capex; $1T-by-2030 ambition vs $12.5bn H1 sales.
The problem is just putting it simply for every one dollar of revenue the entire company makes they're burning two dollars of cash. So these big ambitions are coming at significant cost. You know they did seven point eight billion dollars of revenue but they burn more than 16 16 billion dollars of cash because of the capex.
Post-debut-earnings: negative FCF revisions plus this week's lockup. EVENT: will, dated 3-12 months.
But, you know, for a while, we're going to have this free cash flow pressure on stock and the stock's going to trade off that and lock up expirations for the near term. And, you know, make could be the near medium term, like we could be talking three to three to 12 months.
Negative $30-40bn FCF this year, ~negative $100bn next; $45bn backlog is the way out. EVENT: will, dated.
I mean, there's always a balance in for the foreseeable future. You've got sharply negative free cash flow at SpaceX, not just 30, 40 billion this year, but like 100 billion next year. That's a tough thing to work through. But again, once you get once you get some conviction that those numbers can hold and aren't going to get worse, and then you start seeing this backlog, it's got to get much higher than where it is now. But it's still an impressive forty five billion dollar backlog for SpaceX.
$100bn ARR near end-2026; trillion-by-2030 explicitly uncertain. EVENT: will, dated.
And whether they get to a trillion in revenue by 2030, I don't know. I'm not sure anybody can have that much confidence in it, but it's going to be, you know, they're going to be several hundred billion in revenue and they're going to reach that ARR level pretty close to the end of this year. That hundred billion level, that's really impressive.