Betting on events goes mainstream: the growth numbers, and the argument over whether it is investing or gambling.
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What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own
words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number
and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bearishhedged · 2026-09-10
McGlone tells David Lin that Trump's $5,000 voter pledge is a sign of desperation and that Republicans face a potential sweep against them in the 2026 midterms.
So this is going to be a major potential sweep against Republicans.
Kalshi board member dismisses NY suit as lawfare threatening all federally regulated exchanges.
it's an unhinged and extraordinarily egregious piece of lawfare that's designed to shut down not only some aspects of prediction markets, but all aspects of prediction markets and can be applied to any designated contract market or derivatives exchange in the country.
Predicts consolidation, Supreme Court review, federal preemption wins. EVENT: will.
court cases like this have come in the past and they've always gone to the Supreme Court and they have they have favored federal regulation over federal markets. And that's going to be the case here as well. We'll see these cases get consolidated and go up to the Supreme Court.
Timing call: gut says SCOTUS hears it fall term 2027. EVENT: will, dated.
I think there's a chance that the Supreme Court, depending on at least how some of these cases evolve, could hear those cases this year. But my gut is that it's a next year issue and it will likely happen in the in the fall term of 2027.
Asked if the surge in retail betting on everything is good or bad long term: 'the social implications are not great... those who tend to bet are those who are least able to underwrite the losses' (@1:33-1:49); the volume numbers 'don't surprise me at all' given lowered barriers and lottery-ticket psychology.
“Okay, but in general, I think access to markets are a good thing. And if you provide more access to markets, that's a good thing.”
He notes Robinhood's share of Kalshi volume has fallen from about 50% to 'the 17 ish percent range' @1:39 as it builds a full-stack exchange like DraftKings, and says there is 'enough space for kind of multiple smaller players' @2:14 with Kalshi 'dominating today'. He adds 'Week one of NFL season looks like it's tailor made for prediction markets' @0:41 after a light August. Whisper garbles TAM as 'PAM' and Kalshi as 'Cauchy'.
“there is such a large opportunity out there. My colleagues and I agree, you know, north of a trillion of PAM in terms of volume by 2030”
Asked whether a future administration could end de facto national sports betting via prediction markets: 'I mean, it's possible' @2:45; he cites calls with attorney Dan Wallach who thinks reversal is 'more likely than not' @2:53 while 'very learned lawyers' hold the opposite view (both secondhand inputs to his own coin-toss conclusion).
“So it's really, again, probably another coin toss like the game.”