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Matthew Sigel
VanEck (head of digital assets research)
First call on the ledger
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Where they stand
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Neutral
leaning · 2026-07-06
On AI-lab finances:
“the consortium will struggle, but that it's not great for Circle. And that's where we are.”
…but this news highlights that the barriers to entry are relatively low in the space when it comes to tokenization, when it comes to stablecoins. And that could weigh on margins. So that's what the market was pricing in the other day when Circle fell 17% on that news. Now, launching a product and achieving network effects and scale are two different things. And so the history of these types of consortiums is that there's nobody who's really incentiv ized to drive business activity and sales. And so you can hold those two thoughts in your head at the same time, that the consortium will struggle, but that it's not great for Circle. And that's where we are. So we added a little bit later in the week after the stock had already kind of cratered. So I think the risk reward at this level for Circle is pretty good. This news doesn't change their earnings for this quarter or for this year. It may impact kind of the terminal value that people put on the business. Let me ask you this question. Then as a continuation, then we'll circle back specifically to open USD. I think what does meaningfully impact the bottom line of a stablecoin would be interest rates coming down.…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it
Bull
2026-07-05
“I still think Bitcoin is going to be materially higher in one year”; telling clients “you want to have your full position by October”
…they can trade at 0.3, 0.4 times NAV for a long time if minorities are observing entrenched management control, related party transactions, tax considerations to unwinding, so it's through that lens that we've been underway to those types of names. Yes, I know we're approaching time here . I mean, just broadly, what excites you right now about the space and where the market is likely headed? I mean, you talked about where you're obviously positioned, but I guess in a unicorn scenario, where would you like to be positioned a year from now? I still think Bitcoin is going to be materially higher in one year. And if that's the case, we may lag some of our leveraged peers on the way up, but we'll do just fine. But I think a lot of the market is going to wait for some fundamental catalysts to get more excited. And people are OK missing the first 10% or 20%. If there's a piece of news that's really fundamentally positive, whether that's clarity. The White House has been teasing some progress on Bitcoin strategic reserve now since…From: this video · 2 claims mined from it
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