Gold and hard assets as the debasement trade: decades to run, or already crowded?
The count, last 30 days: 43 bullish, 11 bearish. The tape leans bullish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape vs the talk
The line is Gold, last 90 days. Each dot is a claim as it landed on the tape: filled is bullish, outlined is bearish. Tap a dot to read it. Where the tape went after is context, not a verdict.
The tape
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Sep 07
bullishbearishclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own
words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number
and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Neutral2026-09-10
McGlone tells Lin that US corn yield expectations have collapsed from about 186 bushels to below 180 because of too much July rain (so corn prices are rising).
yields are expected in this country to be about 186 bushels. That was around a record. And now they're dropping below 180.
McGlone tells Lin long-term gold is stuck in an enduring range, could easily fall back to 3,000 before it holds above 5,000, and Fed tightening is a bad environment for it.
So I stick with the, yeah, long-term gold is going to be in an enduring range.
McGlone tells Lin gold is 60% above its 60-month moving average, an extreme comparable to 1980 and the 2011 peak, and too expensive versus a 5% Treasury yield.
Now it's 60% above that average. That's the highest on a year end basis since basically almost 1980. It's very similar to the peak in 2011.
McGlone tells Lin copper is an accident waiting to happen (crowded hedge-fund longs, inventories piled in CME warehouses) and asks whether the accident is starting.
I've been calling copper an accident waiting to happen. The question is, is the accident starting?
McGlone tells Lin about 70% of major-exchange copper inventories, roughly 700,000 tons, now sit in CME warehouses because tariffs pumped up CME copper.
70% of global inventories of the major exchanges include CME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the LME are now in CME type warehouses. That's the highest ever. That's like 700,000 tons.
McGlone tells Lin COMEX copper's 100-day correlation with the S&P 500 is about 0.62, a record for the contract since 1988, which he reads as a warning.
It's a hundred day correlation with the SMB 500 is about 0.62. That's the highest ever with the market going up in the history of that copper contract since 1988.
Gary Wagner says absolute support sits at the 61.8% retracement / 50-day confluence, which would mean gold falling roughly another $100 from ~$4,400 if tested.
So that would be absolute support for me. And even if it did that, that would mean gold comes down another hundred dollars
Gary Wagner says gold above its 50-day moving average is bullish short term but must hold about $4,400 and take out ~$4,760 before the longer-term bearish sentiment is overcome.
short term by virtue of gold's price being above the 50 day simple moving average tells me that on a short term basis, it's turned bullish, but on a long term basis, it still has to prove that it has the ability to find support roughly in this area at $4,400
Gary Wagner says falling crude plus a second Fed hike in December on top of the expected quarter-point hike would turn him bearish on gold toward $4,000.
So if we saw crude beginning to move back down, if we saw the Federal Reserve do the anticipated quarter percent rate hike, but then follow that with another rate hike at their December meeting, that would do it too
Heath sees $4,000 as gold's floor with central bank buying underneath, says gold has broken its downtrend and is likely to go higher
I think 4,000 probably is the floor. I mean, it could go test that again. That's definitely not a potential for it to happen, but gold has broken its downtrend. It is consolidating.
Heath says gold miners (GDX at ~20x trailing, decade low) have record margins, cheap multiples and light positioning, i.e. under-owned
You've got GDX trailing PE at 20X, which is about a decade low, and managed money net longs right now, or I think as of recently has just been around 43%.
Heath says the gold-to-XAU ratio broke a 15-year consolidation, so mining equities should materially outperform the metal
We just saw that breakout, meaning that the mining equities are basically positioned to materially outperform the metal, which was completely different on the first run.
Heath says sovereign rotation from Treasuries into gold is a long-term trend with ~$9T of foreign-held Treasuries still to move; he does not expect it to stop
There's still another $9 trillion of US Treasuries sitting on foreign central banks balance sheet. So there's still a lot that has to be moved.
Heath says royalty and streaming companies are well placed for the next gold cycle as higher cost of capital pushes miners to royalty financing (talking his book)
And royalty, I think companies are gonna be very well placed in general for the next few years as we move into this next cycle with gold.
Evy Hambro (BlackRock) tells Bloomberg copper prices will keep rising over time as paper currencies lose value; his focus is producer margins.
So we will see these price changes continuing. The key for us though as investors in the companies is what does that do for the margins of the producers.
Hambro says gold is the major beneficiary of governments' loss of purchasing power and that trend continues for the foreseeable future.
Gold is a major beneficiary of that because it's preserved purchasing path for decades if not you know hundreds if not thousands of years. And I think that trend is going to be with us for the foreseeable future.
Hambro says central banks are under-owned in gold as a reserve asset and will keep correcting that, since euros and gilts are poor alternatives to Treasuries.
gold is a is a natural one. And so I think the under ownership of gold as a reserve asset by central banks globally you know is something that's going to be corrected and we're seeing that take place.
Brien Lundin tells Kitco generalist investors coming into gold mining stocks is just a matter of time and not much longer, now that central banks have made gold respectable.
The central banks have made it respectable. So I think it's just a matter of time and it's not that much longer.
Brien Lundin tells Kitco there will be no meaningful gold supply response to high prices for another four or five years because that is how long a mine takes to build.
And I don't think we'll see a supply response to these high prices for another four or five years or so down the road, because that's how long it takes to get a mine into production.
Brien Lundin tells Kitco China's increased gold purchases reflect an opportunistic buyer calling the end of this correction.
they're increasing the amount of purchases. I think that's more reflective of the end of this correction and trying to get the best prices that they can because they have historically been opportunistic buyers.
Brien Lundin tells Kitco central bank buying has evolved from the driver of the gold market to a support beneath it, with Western traders now setting the short-term price.
So I think that as the gold price continues to rise, and we've seen this already, that central bank buying has evolved from being a driver of the market to a support below the market.
Brien Lundin tells Kitco silver and mining equities still have much further to run and remain a generational opportunity.
Now, I think today we're seeing the participation from equities in silver, obviously, but they still have much, much further to run. And they still represent what I think is really a generational opportunity.
Brien Lundin tells Kitco gold getting back over $5,000 by the end of 2026 is still a pretty good bet.
I don't think we're going to need as big of a speculative rally, a furious rally, as we saw at the beginning this year, to get back over 5,000. So I think that's still a pretty good bet by the end of this year.
Brien Lundin tells Kitco the gold trend remains upward with a whole lot more to go in this bull market, and investors have to be in it.
But I think we can easily recognize the trend and that remains upward. I think we have a whole lot more to go in this bull market. And you have to be invested in this. It is the opportunity of our careers.
Peter Schiff tells retail viewers $4,400 gold is a buying opportunity: support around $4,000, roughly 10% downside against a potential double or triple.
I think that the support is around 4,000. So the downside risk, realistically, in my mind, is only about 10% if you buy gold here.
Peter Schiff tells a retail investor to hold 10% to as much as 20% in physical precious metals, ~20% short-term foreign bonds, the rest in foreign stocks, zero US stocks.
I would say that people should have 10% to maybe even as much as 20% in physical precious metals.
Bensignor says gold is stuck consolidating after a 30% selloff and partial recovery; no imminent new highs, but the low of two months ago is probably solid.
sold off 30% we've got about half of it back I think we're stuck now for a bit of time in between we're not gonna go just scream up to new all-time highs but I think the load that was made two months ago is probably a solid low
Phil Streible (Blue Line Futures) says he trimmed client gold/silver exposure before the hawkish-Fed pullback and now sees the pullback as a good entry for sidelined clients.
So we did reduce a lot for clients here and a lot of clients that were waiting on the sidelines. It's a great opportunity with this pullback here.
John Fenwick (Fenwick Consulting) tells Kitco 17%+ of his portfolio is in tungsten equities (e.g. KZR, WSRIF) because there is no ETF or futures market and a multi-year deficit.
And so seventeen plus percent of my portfolio right now is in tungsten
Rule tells Lin that, as in the 1970s and not since 1981, gold can rise alongside nominal yields because real rates are negative now (8 to 9% debasement versus a 5.6% long bond).
We haven't seen that circumstance in the market since 1981. But I would suggest to you that we're seeing precisely that in the market now
Rule tells Lin that if policy keeps signaling the dollar's sanctity is of no concern he will move savings from dollars into gold.
If our government continues to signal to savers like myself that the sanctity of the dollar is of no concern, I'll have no choice but to increase my level of gold savings and decrease my level of dollar savings.
Rule tells Lin that if gold holds current levels the financing window is wide open and October 2026 could be a spectacular month for mining financings.
my suspicion is if the market keeps going like this, that October could be a spectacular month indeed for financings.
Todd Horwitz says gold is due for a small pullback after two $115 up days but he remains bullish and would buy a better entry.
So I think that's probably due for a little bit of a pullback. It's not that I'm not bullish, it just means that I would look for a better entry if I were going to be a buyer.
Tim Waterer (KCM Trade) is structurally bullish gold: easing oil and dollar could take it above 4,500, with 5,000 a stretch this year but possible in Q1 2027.
So I think if we did get some reprieve on the oil and dollar front, that could open the avenue higher for gold above 4500. 5000 could be a bit of a stretch this year, but perhaps in Q1 2027.
K.T. McFarland (former deputy national security advisor) tells Fox Business that if Russia and Ukraine, the top two grain exporters, cannot get their grain to market, grain prices will spike sharply.
If they're not getting their goods to market, that means you're gonna see a big spike in prices of grain.
Clem Chambers says gold and silver are good long-term buys at current prices for savers who dollar-cost average, as an inflation hedge, even if they can be bought cheaper first.
Gold and silver are good at these prices. I mean, you might be able to buy a lot cheaper, but in the long run, you'll get a good return.
Clem Chambers says gold reaching $6,500 by Christmas 2026 is extremely unlikely and it is more likely to curve over and drop from ~$4,400.
it's going to go to six and a half thousand by Christmas, I think that's extremely unlikely. I think it's more likely to curve over and then drop off again.
Bill Campbell (DoubleLine) tells Bloomberg that non-dollar and commodity-linked fixed income offers value over the coming years because the AI investment and debt boom will lift commodity demand.
the non-dollar and commodity spaces, you know, offer potential value over the coming years.
Jin Hennig (CME Group) tells Bloomberg that CME's new 24/7 one-ounce gold futures traded over $200 million notional across three weekends, mostly retail, which is why CME is launching a 24/7 silver contract in September.
we have over the past three weekends alone, we have traded over $200 million in notional value, especially coming from a lot of retail interests.
Gold since this was said: ▼ -0.8% · 4,409 → 4,375 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutralleaning · 2026-08-11
Sam Unsted of Bloomberg tells the anchor gold near $4,400 is trading out of step with its traditional drivers, moved by oil and the Fed with more day-to-day volatility.
But gold is still in some respects trading in a way that's if you go back a couple of years completely out of step with its traditional view.
Robert Kiyosaki tells his audience silver is becoming the most strategically important metal as supply shrinks and trust in the dollar erodes, with China, India and Russia stockpiling.
Silver is becoming the most strategically important metal on planet earth at the exact moment the supply is disappearing at the exact moment trust in the dollar is Disappearing
The 5000-gold top-caller stays bearish at ~4100; wants 3000 before 5000; cycle high behind us.
Right now, I'm still bearish gold. I'll probably put out a really bearish comment if we get to near the 200 day mover and everything, give us a bounce.
Copper toward 5 on a normal equity correction; metals are sock puppets of stocks.
I fully expect it to be more likely to head towards five than stay much above these levels, particularly if you get a normal correction to stock market. That's a problem. My headline for last month's commodity outlook for industrial metals and metals were they're sock puppets, the US stock market.
This Week In Focus; recounts 2015 Beijing anecdote that institutions beyond the PBOC hoard gold; argues true Chinese demand undercounted.
said, well, it's not just the Chinese central bank buying all this physical gold. We have two more very important government institutions who are also ho arding gold.
He calls the silver run a burst bubble with more downside: 'The floor of the basement is forty bucks or thereabouts' @1:53, and expects to start 'picking up some bars' under $50 'sometime this year' @2:45. Host recap at 36:41 repeats the targets; teaser duplicate of his sell-the-top boast at 0:43.
“the good news is we're getting near to the bottom now and I see forty to fifty as being the bottom. So the roof of the basement is fifty bucks.”
With spot around $4,000 he sees the bottom near $3,500: 'you're brave if you're buying it now, but you're not brave if you're buying it at three and a half thousand' @3:28, and at $3,000 'you'll be lucky to get it that low' @3:43. Host recap at 36:41 repeats the number.
“And for gold, that's probably three and a half thousand dollars. It could be a little bit lower. So go three and a half thousand as a place where it starts to get interesting”
After the bottom he expects a long sideways phase, 'it could be a couple of years' @3:06, then a big rise; the AI buildout is 'going to be massively inflationary because they're going to have to print like no tomorrow to fund it all' @18:52, which he says speaks to silver and gold.
“what happens really long term, obviously, it's going to go up a long way because we're about to go into a seriously inflationary period.”
His 'gold is for war' framework: governments stockpile gold before conflict, so when Xi 'and the PLA fell out with each other' @9:35 and a Taiwan invasion was shelved, 'gold is just lost a very, very powerful use case' @13:17. He argues this, not Fed policy, ended the vertical.
“Then gold falls. And that's what I believe we saw back in the beginning of the year. China went right, we're not we're not going to invade Taiwan next year in May. And that was it.”
Says gold went through 'a one in a hundred year event in q1' and was overheated; oil has 'stolen a lot of that geopolitical premium from gold' (@82:15) and hawkish higher-for-longer Fed talk is a headwind. Cites China: to reach a 30% gold allocation it would have to repeat June's monthly purchases 'For 33 years' (@83:31) - 'this is secular' (de-dollarization, debasement, diversification).
“come back down. Um, we still believe the secular trade is there It's just simply taking a bit of a breather”
Conditional on a second-half US economic slowdown reviving the 'sell usa theme' and weakening the dollar (@86:30). Also flags decade-long mine underinvestment: critical metals 'sitting in deficits' (@84:59).
“Dollar traditionally silver's been better correlated to weaker u.s Dollars, I think silver can sort of outperform”
Wedge favors one more downside flush; a buyer below 4,000; long-term mega-bull.
“there might be one final flush down to about the 3,500 level, but basically anything below 4,000, I'm starting to look at it very attractively as a buy.”
Asked whether $4,000 gold is a market bottom, Cook frames it as a battle over Fed policy ('does the Fed have to raise rates due to inflation or they have to lower them' @15:54) and central-bank treasury selling, then gives a one-year range call. Gold is repeatedly established on tape as trading about $4,000, down from a $5,000 top. Teaser duplicate of this line at 0:00.
“I personally, I'm expecting gold to jump around within $500 of where it is right now for the next year.”
His stated basis: 'There's a deficit in copper production coming' @5:05 and central banks buying gold while selling Treasuries; 'So I think the outlook for gold looks very strong' @5:15. This is the premise for his whole junior-miner stock-picking framework.
“I'm still looking at the long term, I think, you know, the gold and silver and copper prices have got to go up. And I mean that over the long term, the next few years.”
Answer to whether record copper above $6 a pound looks frothy or justified. He ties the demand to 'the infrastructure build-out for all the energy that it's going to take to power AI plus everything else' @27:30, and adds 'I think neutral through the end of the year... certainly looking further out, yeah, it looks pretty strong' @27:49.
“It might be frothy right now, but if I look two years out, it's cheap.”
He cites gold's peak 'at about uh fifty five hundred dollars an ounce' and silver at 'one sixteen an ounce' @3:40, with 'silver falling back to about sixty dollars an ounce or basically cutting in half is where we would get more interested again' @3:54. They are acting on it: 'now we've been building it back up towards about that average 10 percent' of the high-income strategy @4:53, and 'the energy and precious metal space uh look pretty attractive' @28:24.
“we always kind of had a range of with gold falling back to about four thousand dollars would be where we start to get a lot more interested again”
Gold has broken and closed below the $4,000 floor he had given a 60-70% chance of holding. Conditional on follow-through selling below the October bottom near 3932. Later refined: 'the fact that it's closing near the low potential support comes in around 3920' @19:13, and he calls the chart 'a textbook example of a market under pressure' @17:23 with lower highs and lower lows from the 5600-area record.
“I'm going to base my revised support at around 3,900 on the low end”
Direct answer to host: 'earlier this year your wave model... pointed to kind of $6,000 gold last month you softened it saying the top might already be around 5600... is 6,000 still a real year-end target or is that called changed for you' @15:02-15:19. He explains via his ship/captain analogy that models must recalibrate when policy fundamentals change - here, the rate-hike talk. An explicit on-tape reversal of a prior price target.
“that call has to change remember I create models and look for certain activities based on past performance”
'everybody got like super bullish right at the top' @10:27. Reads the metals stall plus the Fort Knox audit noise as the market saying the dollar is strong despite $39T+ debt; watch the dollar under 100: 'that might actually flip back more into the medals.' @11:18. Whisper renders 'metals' as 'medals' throughout: kept verbatim.
“I was bullish for years, and I am flat in the medals, which I have been for months now. Do I think they could bottom? Yeah.”
Direct answer to Maggie Lake's 'Do you think gold has found a bottom here, or is there more downside ahead?' @3:54. Support: 'there's a stubbornness in terms of any kind of downward pressure on silver and gold prices' @4:03 and 'the smartest of people are reloading with more gold and silver like the Chinese are' @4:23. Follows the post-Warsh-nomination crash he calls 'a hit job on precious metals' @0:57. Teaser duplicate at 0:17.
“Well, there could be more downside ahead, but I think it looks like a bottom to me.”
Mark Thornton · Mises Institute - org from title/public record, not stated on tape · Wealthion ↗
Gold since this was said: ▲ +9.8% · 3,986 → 4,375 · as of 2026-09-11
The 'steering currents' are the dollar, interest rates and Fed-policy expectations that currently favor rate hikes. Timing: 'that's what I'm expecting over the next, I don't know, couple of months. It's been hard to time.' @7:47. He expects the Fed to push rates lower or compress real rates, flipping speculators back into gold and changing market sentiment.
“So I think those steering currents that speculators are paying attention to are going to be reversed. Instead of being against the gold price, it's going to be for the gold price”
Mark Thornton · Mises Institute - org from title/public record, not stated on tape · Wealthion ↗
Gold since this was said: ▲ +9.8% · 3,986 → 4,375 · as of 2026-09-11
Sold the bulk of his gold/silver STOCKS on his across-the-board trigger system after the January peak (~$1,300 above current); still holds all bullion; 'less high is not low, lower is not low'; gold ~$4,000 'not really low'
Restates the base case on fresh tape; 2020's consolidation at $2,000 lasted three years; 2011/1980 chart similarities 'imprudent to ignore'; a 50-60% drawdown from the 5,600 peak = sub-3,000 is his unconditional buy
“My base case right now is actually a period of correction and consolidation and the next big move will be higher. That is my expectation. Not my prediction.”
'gold is starting to find support around $4,000' (@4:29); the dollar 'has been very strong. I think it's due for a pullback' (@4:32); 'these are some of the most hated assets in the market... I love buying the hated stuff' (@4:48).
“And if anything less than the extreme hawkishness that's expected by the Fed materializes, I think gold and bonds are going to be very strong.”
Calls it 'the revenge of the old economy' (@8:00) and the 'halo' trade - hard assets, local operations (@8:20); mining capex down 35% from peak (@10:57); 'all of this is the de-globalization theme in process, which just leads to higher commodity prices' (@8:50). Conditional growth warning: 'you don't have the products, you don't have the oil, it will hit growth' (@10:00).
“You know, I was arguing before this ever happened, we were going to enter a new area where all commodity prices, whether it's oil, metals, agriculture, and the rest of them are going to be structurally higher.”
On the June 24 drop to $4,000 he alerted readers 'that really felt like capitulation. Don't know if that was the bottom, but it sure felt like one' @1:37; seasonality 'usually mid-July to mid-August at the gold price bottoms' @1:08, and he expects 'a stronger fall' @2:16.
“You know, we put a little breathing room between $4,000 and us. That seems to be a pretty good floor for the price right now. So I'm optimistic.”
He models this bull from a base 'probably about $1,050 and the base set in 2015' @4:17; 'Earlier this year, I would have said six to eight months' to get there @4:41. At $6,000 to $8,000 'I'm going to be pretty cautious going forward' @11:02; a 1970s-style 24x projection to the mid-20-thousands would imply a monetary reset he is 'not predicting' @12:07.
“if you project other markets to 70s, the 2000s, then we should get to $6,000 to $8,000 at the end of whatever this cycle is.”
He is describing generalist investors returning from 'the summer doldrums' @14:54 after Labor Day and finding they 'missed those gains through sheer inattention' @15:14; miners are down about 40% from highs and 'Asia is buying. China is buying. Central banks are buying' @14:21.
“they're going to look back and they're likely going to see the gold price up 5 or 10 percent. These mining stocks up 20 or 30 percent”
He adds 'one day two weeks ago, we actually had zero bullish' @1:48. Host paraphrase (not on tape verbatim): Day 'told me gold could break its last low and fall towards $3,600 before this is done' @2:03, so he is not promising a straight line.
“The negative sentiment on gold equities among the broader investment public right now is, and I say this literally, the worst sentiment I have ever seen in my 50 years managing money in any sector at any time.”
He frames the shift as structural: 'Gold now has surpassed US Treasuries' in central bank holdings @2:23, though 'it hasn't surpassed, you know, US dollars if you look at all types of dollar investments' @2:26.
“gold represents, what, 23 to 25 percent based on the World Gold Council of central banks holdings. So, you know, that's different. We're finding central banks continuing to buy.”
Her clip: 'a rise in gold price is an indication of the failing currency. And if you get that, once you get that, well, frankly, you start to make different choices' @2:48.
“You need to think about gold and silver as money and not a trade.”
On the roughly 50% crash from $121 he says 'the whole system was really on the verge of breaking' @4:01. At $4,000 gold his 8-to-1 mining ratio implies about $500 silver. Host paraphrase (secondhand): asked if triple-digit silver happens again, 'his answer was simple, absolutely. He just won't say when' @4:31.
“You know, we mine eight to one. So for everyone else in gold, eight ounces of silver is being mined worldwide by the mining industry. So divide the current gold price by eight, and that should be the silver price.”
Answering conference-goers asking 'what do you think of Nvidia?' @4:47. Host relays his reasoning: 30 years of underinvestment 'meeting a world that wants more of everything, you can't fix that in a hurry' @4:55. Earlier he says symposium attendees are 'greedy', conditioned to see 'soft markets are sales' @1:15.
“The truth is, I don't think of it at all. I can't spell it. I understand copper.”
Recorded Tuesday Jul 14 after a cooler 3.5% CPI print, with gold rebounding to ~$4,062 after touching ~$3,990. He cites a double/tweezer bottom vs the Jun 23-24 low: 'we have really a real strong support right around $4,000 is based on the double bottom' @15:10, but stresses 'There's no confirmation that a bottom is in place' @20:31.
“I think that we have, at least on a tentative basis, formed a bottom or a definitive level of support at around $4,000.”
Closing summary of the technical walk-through: 'I think that this set of bonds [bottoms] would be where we have really strong support and we could see it move higher' @31:48; downside checkpoints 'Four thousand thirty nine sixty and then about thirty nine thirty five' @30:13.
“In other words, if you continue to fall , I don't see gold going below thirty nine twenty.”
Asked for his conclusion: 'it's certainly not time to continue to be bearish and... continue selling' @28:38; resistance map: break $4,076-$4,080, then $4,180-$4,190 ('the major area' @29:01), then ~$4,400; but 'Would I be an excited bullish player? No, there's a potential for the bearish momentum to continue' @31:21.
“So short term, I would look for gold to continue to track higher if, in fact, we're correct.”
Silver ~$60 after $121 ATH; AUDIO CAVEAT: 'not quite honestly' garbled, bottom-is-in leg NOT-EVALUATED pending ears; 6-12mo consolidation reading safe; talks his book (silver miner CEO)
“I think we've seen the lows, not quite honestly. But we need to bounce around. You know, we had the market, the investors, institutional investors need to get used to this kind of new pricing regime that we're in. And it may take six months. It may take 12 months.”
His cleanest structural call: ~2024-2034 precious bull, the 50% drawdown a mid-cycle correction; book disclosed
“But, you know, I think we're two years into a 10 year bull market. I look at this bull market similar to what I said earlier about the 2002 to 2012 rally. And we're in one of those corrections.”
Endorses a return to the ~$120 high as certain; the triple-test pattern is chart musing, not a filed target
“Oh yeah, and it will. It's just like, you know, we saw $50 three times on a third time broke through. You know, maybe we'll hit 120 again three times before it breaks through to go to some other level.”
MEANING GUARD: his long-standing normative fair-value doctrine (ratio SHOULD be 8), conditional on miners controlling pricing; not a forecast the ratio gets there
“we mine eight to one. So, for every one ounce of gold, eight ounces of silver is being mined worldwide by the mining industry. So, divide the current gold price by eight, and that should be the silver price.”
The title claim: habitual shorts flipping long while suppressing price; ALLEGATION FLAG on 'manipulation' (his claim, unproven; 2015 CFTC letter went nowhere per host)
“we do see some manipulation going on. You know, they're trying to knock it down as much as they can to, you know, load back up again for the next big rally, which is a little bit different, because normally they'd be on the short side. I think now they're getting on the long side.”
Personal-portfolio disclosure, buy-the-dip advice-flavored; book disclosed twice over (CEO + retail mint owner)
“So I like things on sale. And right now I'm in the market buying because, you know, stocks down 50%. And a lot of these companies are really solid, really good companies.”
AI/nuclear/robotics demand thesis; 'we need higher prices' is a producer's normative claim doubling as his direction view
“because this commodity is in demand, and with AI coming in, nuclear energy coming in, robotics, and, you know, all the fancy electronics that, you know, we want to produce, you know, this metal is needed. And with these deficits, you know, we need higher prices to try to close the gap on these deficits.”
Unhedged structural bull case: debasement + central bank gold accumulation
“Oh, I'm extremely bullish on all of the precious. And the core of it really is the debasement, meaning that fiat currencies have only been around since 1971.”
MEANING GUARD: '7x' is his HISTORICAL supercycle average, not a stated forward target; $10,000 gold / $300 silver are 'could see' levels, deliberately hedged; the video title's 'to 7X' is the channel's packaging
“I don't like to get into the numbers game, but, you know, I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people that had put out these numbers, like, 'Oh my God, he's crazy.' Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price of these commodities go up by 7x on average.”
Falsifiable structural claim: a recession only delays the supercycle ~2 years (cites 08-09 losing 24 months)
“'Cause I can tell you demand collapsing or something like that won't derail these stories. It really has to come from the supply side. If demand collapsed, you just push it out a couple of years.”
House view: debasement is the debt exit, crisis elevates gold; BOOK FLAG: channel is sister to a physical precious metals business (self-ID on tape)
“but we also think that the dollar can lose its value and will continue to lose its value because that's the way you get out of the debt problem. Until there's a crisis, that's not going to change. And when the crisis comes, that's gonna be great for gold, certainly in the short to medium to even very, very long run because it'll, its brand will elevate.”
Rejects the bear label; held all physical bullion through the correction
“My base case is still that the next big move is likely to be upwards. But that involves the correction and consolidation first. Which means I'm not in any hurry to buy.”
Jeff Currie tells the Wealthion host we are in a commodity super cycle that began in October 2020, with weighted commodity indices trending straight up for six years.
And I would argue this super cycle started back in October 2020. And if you just take a weighted average of one of these indices it's just a line going straight up over the last six years
Jeff Currie says an institutional investor should hold around 3% in commodities given their volatility, turning it up in super cycles; model outputs of 20-30% are too high.
Now if I were looking at if I were telling you as an institutional investor I'd say somewhere around 3 percent
Jeff Currie says he is extremely bullish on all precious metals on the debasement thesis: fiat currency since 1971 is a short experiment and central-bank reserves are becoming gold-backed as gold rises.
Oliver Dachsel of Aris Mining says gold miners are a coiled spring that will do really well once gold price momentum returns.
So I think we're in a situation where it's a little bit like a coiled spring, right? The sector is doing well. And once the gold price momentum is back, then I think the sector will do really well.
Oliver Dachsel guides Marmato to 200,000 oz and Segovia plus Marmato to 500,000 oz combined in 2028.
So set differently, 2028 would be the first year when the CIP plant runs consistently at 5,000 tons per day, which in turn should enable Marmato to produce 500,000 ounces. Sorry, 200,000 ounces. And then Segovia and Marmato would be at 500,000 ounces combined.
Oliver Dachsel says Aris Mining's base case for Soto Norte environmental permitting is about 18 months from filing this quarter, possibly quicker under Colombia's new pro-mining government.
You know, our base case assumption had been around 18 months with this new government. Could it be quicker? Maybe, who knows?
Oliver Dachsel expects Aris Mining's Toroparu project fully permitted by end-2026 and a construction decision in Q1 2027.
So we expect to have that project fully permitted by the end of the year. And that would then put us in a position to make a construction decision in Q1.
Oliver Dachsel projects Toroparu first gold in late 2029, adding ~235,000 oz a year to lift Aris Mining to ~735,000 oz, if construction is approved in Q1 2027.
So first gold late 2029, at which point Toro-Peru would be expected to contribute about 235,000 ounces annually, right? So that would lift then gold production from 500,000 ounces to 735,000 ounces.
Oliver Dachsel is fundamentally positive on gold because of the debasement trade, poor Western fiscal outlooks and persistent geopolitical tension.
But we are fundamentally positive on the outlook for gold, given, you know, the debasement trade. Like the fiscal outlook across the Western world is not particularly rosy, right?
Oliver Dachsel says Aris Mining will double production from 2025's ~257,000 oz to 500,000 oz by 2028 and potentially quadruple it by around 2031.
transformational organic growth in the near term doubling gold production relative to last year's level to 500,000 ounces by 2028 and then potentially quadrupling gold production relative to last year's level by, you know, maybe 2031, right?
“I think gold is gonna continue to struggle. But my view is that there's a very good chance the AI bubble is gonna burst in the second half of the year.”
“Look out gold goes to seven [thousand]… silver goes to 200 Bitcoin goes to 180”; owns his prior miss on-air: “I missed the Bitcoin call. I thought we'd go to 150. I was wrong. We went to 125”
Rick Rule says gold could easily rise enough over the next decade to offset a 75% loss of dollar purchasing power, while not forecasting a 1970s-style 25-fold move.
Now, what I am suggesting is that the increase in the gold price could easily mirror the deterioration in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, which is to say that gold would maintain its purchasing power, while the dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power.
Rick Rule says Wheaton Precious Metals benefits as the market prices in very large by-product streaming deals over the next two to three years.
I would suggest that the market is beginning to price into Wheaton, the probability that very, very large streaming transactions will occur over the next two or three years, which means that Wheaton, although they compete with Franco directly in this market, will benefit.
Rick Rule expects investor focus on gold producers to shift within two years from capital discipline to sustaining production, forcing more pipeline spending and M&A.
I think that changes because I think the concern over the next two years will be the ability of companies to maintain or increase their production
Rick Rule expects copper deficits to force price rationing (much higher copper) within five years.
We will see in the next five years, copper rationed by price, which is to say production declines over the next five years will be such that the current deficits that we see in copper production will cause copper to be rationed by price.
On Fox vs Schiff: “over like a three to ten year period, gold and Bitcoin have both been outperforming stocks” (chyron: GOLD OUTPERFORMS S&P 500 OVER 1Y)
Gary Wagner tells Kitco there is a 60-70% probability that $4,000 gold (futures) is a technical floor after the drop from above $5,500, pending follow-through next week.
And that's why I believe that there's a decent probability, I would say 60 to 70%, that this particular area right here at $4,000 could in fact be a technical level of support.
Gary Wagner tells Kitco that if gold clears resistance around $4,350-4,360 it has a clear run to about $4,500 (conditional).
If it can break through $43.50, $60, then I believe that we've got a clear shot to about $4,500 before we encounter any kind of strong technical resistance.
Gary Wagner tells Kitco that if gold loses $4,000 it could fall another $100, below which there is no strong technical support for a while (conditional).
4,000 is really a key and critical number. If it does break below it, it could go $100 lower. But below that, there's really no technical level of support.
Gary Wagner tells Kitco that gold bulls must hold just above $4,000 and the next real resistance is around $4,370 on the active futures contract.
The key number that gold bulls need to see gold hold is just above 4,000. The next level of real resistance should gold continue to move higher is going to be around 4,370 basis most active futures contract.
Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco he is a buyer of silver now and will keep accumulating it at 60 and 55 because it is 'baby gold' with industrial and stored value.
And I will continue to accumulate this asset because of its worth, because of its industrial use, because of its value, because of its stored value, because it's baby gold
Michael Oliver tells Kitco silver is highly likely coming out of its six-month congestion and he doubts it will see the $50-55 levels everybody expects.
Highly likely we're coming out of here. So I'm doubtful you'll see those levels that everybody expects.
Michael Oliver tells Kitco if gold miners break out versus gold on a spread basis, which he expects, they are likely to double or triple in value relative to an ounce of gold.
If you break those miners out versus gold on a spread basis, they're likely to double or triple in relative value to an ounce of gold.
Peter Schiff tells the interviewer that European central banks should sell dollars and Treasuries and buy gold, because gold prices are going to keep going up.
European central banks can sell U.S. dollars, they can sell U.S. Treasuries, and they can buy more gold. I think that would hit the U.S. where it hurts and it would actually help Europe because gold prices are going to keep going up.
Peter Schiff tells the interviewer that if the Fed monetizes Greenland-purchase debt it will create massive inflation, weaken the dollar and push money into gold (conditional).
if the Fed buys the bonds that the government has to sell to raise the money to buy Greenland, then that's just going to create massive inflation in the United States and further suppress the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and cause more money to flow from dollars and treasuries into gold.
Raoul Pal tells Mando that gold tracks current financial conditions and leads GMI's total-liquidity measure by about 12 months, while Bitcoin follows liquidity.
So this is our total liquidity in gold. So gold leads it by about 12 months. It basically lives in financial conditions world.
Raoul Pal tells Mando the metals (gold) trade is not done and can keep running until the end of 2026 because financial conditions must keep easing to fund interest payments.
So the metals trade, I don't think it's done yet because of this. We're not there yet. So it feels like the metals trade can go till the end of the year, which means financial conditions, the whole thing just goes forward.
Peter Schiff says any gold or silver miner makes money from here; the group is ridiculously cheap with exploding earnings.
I don't see how you don't make money buying any gold stock or silver stock. I think the whole group is ridiculously cheap and the earnings are exploding.
Peter Schiff says gold mining stocks, despite being up 45-50% on the year, are ridiculously cheap given how profitable they will become as the dollar falls.
even though they're up 45%, 50% on the year, something like that, they are ridiculously cheap