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Ian Moore
Bernstein (US entertainment research analyst)
First call on the ledger
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else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
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He notes Robinhood's share of Kalshi volume has fallen from about 50% to 'the 17 ish percent range' @1:39 as it builds a full-stack exchange like DraftKings, and says there is 'enough space for kind of multiple smaller players' @2:14 with Kalshi 'dominating today'. He adds 'Week one of NFL season looks like it's tailor made for prediction markets' @0:41 after a light August. Whisper garbles TAM as 'PAM' and Kalshi as 'Cauchy'.
“there is such a large opportunity out there. My colleagues and I agree, you know, north of a trillion of PAM in terms of volume by 2030”
Asked whether a future administration could end de facto national sports betting via prediction markets: 'I mean, it's possible' @2:45; he cites calls with attorney Dan Wallach who thinks reversal is 'more likely than not' @2:53 while 'very learned lawyers' hold the opposite view (both secondhand inputs to his own coin-toss conclusion).
“So it's really, again, probably another coin toss like the game.”
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