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0 correct, 1 missed; 1 still on the clock. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Scored calls
Said Dec 2024 · deadline Dec 31, 2025Missed
Bitwise 2025 predictions: Bitcoin tops $200,000 in 2025
What happened: 2025 peak ~$126K
On the clock
Written down and dated. Not judged until the deadline arrives.
Said Dec 2025 · resolves Dec 31, 2026
Bitwise 2026 predictions: Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle and sets new all-time highs in 2026 (>$126K)
Bitcoin since the call: ▼ -14.9% · 90,360 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Matt Hougan (Bitwise) tells CNBC's Carl the White House crypto meeting is broadly positive for Bitcoin as a sign of continued administration commitment.
broadly it's positive for bitcoin specifically bitcoin is the largest asset in crypto and it generally benefits when the administration is focused on making crypto a hospitable place
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +22.4% · 62,844 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Matt Hougan tells CNBC the real winners from tokenization are DeFi apps (Uniswap, Aave, Hyperliquid, Chainlink) that will be re-rated from a $2tn to a $150-200tn addressable market.
the bigger winners from this sort of the key winners i think are actually the defy apps things like uniswap ave maybe hyper liquid even oracles like chainlink
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +22.4% · 62,844 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Matt Hougan tells CNBC he sees no clear path for the CLARITY Act (Polymarket ~20%); passage would be a major positive surprise for crypto.
polymarket has the odds at about 20 i think if the clarity act does surprise us and pass we're in a new major market in crypto
Matt Hougan tells CNBC the crypto outlook into year-end 2026 is good even without CLARITY, but on a more gradual path because rules could be reversed by a future administration.
i still think the outlook for the end of the year is good but it's probably a more gradual path because there will be concerns that future regulatory advances could be reversed in a future administration.
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +22.4% · 62,844 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Matt Hougan (Bitwise) tells Bloomberg the custody/product hack is positive for crypto ETF flows because investors want institutional protections.
So I do think this is positive for ETF flows in the crypto market.
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +20.4% · 63,916 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Matt Hougan (Bitwise) tells Bloomberg that Bitcoin ignoring bad news is a sign crypto winter may be bottoming, with a strong end to 2026 possible.
I think it's a sign that we may be at the bottom of this crypto winner and that we may have a strong end of the year.
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +20.4% · 63,916 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Matt Hougan (Bitwise) tells Bloomberg large wealth-management platforms approving crypto ETFs are the next marginal buyer of Bitcoin, a slow-burn catalyst.
I really think that's the next marginal buyer of Bitcoin coming into the market and that's not a one minute catalyst.
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +20.4% · 63,916 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Matt Hougan (Bitwise) tells Bloomberg the crypto market is down 50% from its all-time high even as wealth platforms keep approving crypto ETFs.
That's something that takes place over time you know over the past few months despite a market that's down 50 percent from its all time high.
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +20.4% · 63,916 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
Matt Hougan (Bitwise) tells Bloomberg the coming crypto bull market will be slower, less volatile and more institutional, lifting prices higher over time.
Look I think this bull market is going to be slower less volatile and more institutional than bull markets in the past.
Bitcoin since this was said: ▲ +20.4% · 63,916 → 76,930 · as of 2026-09-11
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