Oil & Gas
95 bullish · 69 bearish · 67 neutral · exact words, dated and sourced
+105Crude's path: supply shocks, record-low inventories, and targets running from $45 to $90.
The count, last 30 days: 36 bullish, 20 bearish. The tape leans bullish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape vs the talk
The line is WTI crude, last 90 days. Each dot is a claim as it landed on the tape: filled is bullish, outlined is bearish. Tap a dot to read it. Where the tape went after is context, not a verdict.
The tape
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Aug 17
Aug 24
Aug 31
Sep 07
bullishbearishclaims filed per week
Where the numbers land
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bearish
Donald Trump says oil prices will come down as soon as the US wins the war with Iran, which he says it is winning.
We'll be going down as soon as we win the war with Iran which is taking place right now. We'll win it. We're winning it.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Carole Nakhle expects the US-Iran conflict and the Hormuz disruption to drag on because the economic pain is uneven and not yet enough to force politicians, especially the US administration, to end it, which keeps oil supported.
But I feel that as long as the cost of this disruption is not felt evenly in the world is not causing enough pain. We should expect that conflict to drag on.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Carole Nakhle says $100 / high-$90s Brent is not a floor because the price is geopolitics-driven and can shed $20-40 in a week; no floor or ceiling should be called yet.
No I don't believe there is a floor ceiling at this stage. But definitely the 100 or the high 90s is not a floor
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Carole Nakhle doubts the oil-inventory crisis story: non-OECD/China stocks are guesswork and if inventories were really drying up prices would already be far higher.
And if really inventories were drying up as some analysts are saying we should have expected to see prices to be much higher than the current levels we are seeing given the scale of the disruption.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Donald Trump, in a convention speech clip, predicts to voters that the Iran war ends immediately after the November 2026 midterm election because Iran cannot hold out longer.
I think the war will end immediately after the election, because they can't hold out any longer.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Onur Ant tells the Bloomberg anchor that, contrary to Trump's quick-end prediction, Bloomberg's own read is a serious risk of escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.
But if we look at what's going on here in the region over the last week, we still think there is a serious risk of escalation, especially around the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Onur Ant tells the anchor Iran's pain threshold is probably higher than US officials assume, so a quick capitulation is unlikely.
So I think the threshold, the pain threshold, is probably different than what some of the American officials seem to think.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Chris Wright tells a Bloomberg interviewer the administration's supply measures will produce a rollover with fuel prices heading down, while acknowledging big challenges.
We're doing everything we can. And I think you will see this rollover and prices headed down. But these are big challenges.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Will Kennedy tells the anchor the refining-capacity shortage from the Middle East and Russia wars, and hence elevated diesel prices, will not end any time soon unless those wars change.
And there's no reason to think because we are short of refining capacity because of the war in the Middle East and the war in Russia, that situation is going to end any time soon, unless the situation of those wars changes.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jack Caffrey tells the anchor diesel prices stay stiff because no refiner will greenlight major capacity expansion, and one or two unexpected refinery outages would put the US under much greater fuel pressure.
but diesel makes the economy go round, and diesel prices remain stiff, and I don't see any refining company really greenlighting massive capacity expansion
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jeff Currie tells the CNBC anchor the oil spike owes more to China returning to the market (bid across Asia, Shanghai crude over 100) than to Middle East headlines.
Actually, I put a bigger weight on China coming back to the market because you can just see the bid across Asia.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jeff Currie tells the anchor this oil rally differs from earlier ones because the market now treats it as non-transient, visible in energy equities and long-dated oil prices, a read he shares.
But I think the one thing that's really different about this rally is that people are starting to go, "This is not transient." And you're seeing it in the equities, the long dated oil prices.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jeff Currie tells the anchor the broad commodity rally is the super cycle he has called, commodities being the decade's best-performing asset class despite being ignored.
This is the super cycle we've been talking about. I want to emphasize, commodities are the best-performing asset class this decade, even though nobody trades them.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jeff Currie tells the anchor there is a food crisis (soybeans in the teens) and a fuel crisis, with copper hitting successive highs.
We've got a food crisis on our hands. We have a fuel crisis on our hands. Copper was hitting high after high after high.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
McGlone tells Lin the war-driven crude spike will revert and crude and energy prices will collapse, timing unknown.
At some point, this is gonna revert lower and crude oil and energy prices will collapse, but it's a question when and how.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
McGlone tells Lin that $6 diesel is already breaking the US and global economy.
Diesel right now, about six dollars a gallon in the US is breaking stuff. It's the grease of the global economy.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
McGlone tells Lin January US natural gas is $3.80 per MMBtu, the lowest since end-2021, the leading signal that energy prices are heading down.
US natural gas, the January contract, that's the apex of bell curve. Right now, as we speak, it's $3.80 per MMB to you.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
McGlone tells Lin he expects Venezuela to double its oil production within a year; it is already up 30% year on year.
I fully expect they're gonna double their production in a year, but they're already up 30% from a year ago.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
McGlone tells Lin $100 WTI is probably a decent peak, admitting he thought $120 was the peak early in the year and that he does not really know.
I don't really know how crude oil is gonna go. I think 100 in the US is a decent peak. I thought 120 was a decent peak early in the year, but you see it's breaking stuff.
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Gary Wagner puts WTI crude futures resistance at $98.50-99 a barrel.
I'm putting resistance currently at between $98.50 and $99 per barrel
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Gary Wagner says crude's uptrend is accelerating and WTI futures could head higher to $98-99.
the strength of that trend, excuse me, is accelerating. It's getting stronger, not weaker, which is why I believe we could head substantially and not substantially, but we could absolutely had higher 9899 on this futures contract
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Tom Lee tells retail to keep energy exposure simple through the XLE ETF rather than treating energy as a growth sector.
my advice would be I think if someone's listening to this they should just keep it simple and stick with XLE
WTI crude since this was said: ▼ -2.8% · 102.5 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Wilson expects record crack spreads to narrow via crude rising rather than product prices falling, since there is no demand destruction
And it looks to me like it's going to be oil prices going up because there's no demand destruction.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Wilson recommends continuing to own energy stocks as a portfolio hedge against oil rising, framed as a quality/factor call
And I think you should continue to own energy stocks as a hedge in your portfolio because we like the quality parts of the market
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Gave says bonds no longer diversify equity risk; energy stocks now do that job in portfolios
So they no longer do the job that they did in portfolios for 30 years. Interestingly, what does do the job now is energy stocks.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Cranfield says the whole commodity complex is in another super cycle (oil back at $100, record copper, super El Nino) and it will not get easier
The whole commodity complex is going through another super cycle. And we've got the weather impact with this super El Nino as well. It's not going to get any easier.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Brett Heath (Metalla Royalty CEO) expects oil to go higher because damaged infrastructure takes years to repair and demand outruns supply
And so I think oil is set to go higher. A lot of the infrastructure that has been damaged is going to take multiple years to repair.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Clara Ferreira Marques tells Bloomberg Brent, near $100, could rise considerably higher if the Hormuz shuttling trade that has kept barrels flowing is disrupted.
If we see a disruption to shuttling you could certainly see that figure rising considerably higher.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Clara Ferreira Marques tells Bloomberg the real tension is in fuels, with diesel up more than twice as much as crude since the war began and winter demand and lower US exports set to add pressure.
The real tension that we're seeing at the moment is in fuels you look at diesel that's gone up more than twice what crude has since the beginning of the war and also gas.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jim Cramer (CNBC Mad Money) says with no deterrent to Iran and strategic reserves being used up, oil can spiral higher
Whatever we do, they do. That's not acceptable. And that will send oil up. And I just think we can spiral higher.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects), back from China, says China is buying oil again while global supply falls, so crude is poised to move sharply higher ('Food' is a whisper garble of crude)
They are starting to buy oil again. And the global supply is simply falling. Food is poised to move sharply higher.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Weiss says there is no off-ramp to lower oil prices, consistent with every geopolitical and military contact he has spoken to
i just don't see an off ramp for lower oil prices and that's consistent for everybody i talked to
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects) says diesel above $200, not crude, is driving inflation and the 10-year, and inventory buffers (400M barrels of excess) are gone
Diesel is above $200. That's what feeds into inflation. That's what's driving the 10-year. It's not crude. We just do not have any buffers left. We came into the conflict with 400 million barrels of excess. Clearly now that's gone.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jim Cramer tells CNBC the escalating tit-for-tat with Iran will send oil up and prices can spiral higher, with less SPR cover than in the past.
Whatever we do, they do. That's not acceptable. And that will send oil up. And I just think we can spiral higher.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Amrita Sen of Energy Aspects tells CNBC crude inventory draws of over 130 million barrels in two and a half weeks show a rapidly tightening oil market, pointing to higher crude prices.
the pace of crude draw downs in infantry has just been eye watering over the course of the last two, two and a half weeks. We have drawn down over 130 million barrels of crude oil.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
President Trump says the Iran war will end immediately after the November 2026 election because Iran cannot hold out and is trying to influence the vote.
I think the war will end immediately after the election, because they can't hold out any longer. They're desperate to try and affect the election
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.7% · 96.05 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Samantha Dart (Goldman Sachs) tells Bloomberg diesel is the tightest refined-product market because Russia was a major diesel exporter and refining capacity is damaged.
we would say that diesel right now is your tightest market
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Dart says US gasoline can move sequentially lower after driving season but not back to normal levels while refining tightness persists.
we think that sequentially things can move lower on the gasoline side, but not to normal levels
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Dart says diesel and gasoline premiums over crude stay much higher than normal through the whole of 2027 because refining-capacity damage is not being resolved.
When we think about how much higher than crude oil will diesel be, will gasoline be into next year, the whole of next year, this can continue to be much higher than normal because you're not resolving that tightness in refining capacity
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Jon Seaton tells Bloomberg US gasoline prices are temporarily elevated and will come down once the Iran war is over.
why temporarily gas prices are where they are, and yes, they will come down once the war is over.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Patrick De Haan (GasBuddy) warns diesel at current levels is a silent killer for the US economy if prices hold, which he ties to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia; conditional
In fact, there's going to be a silent killer of the US economy if diesel prices maintain these levels, which as long as especially these Ukrainian drone attacks keep up on Russia.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jeff Currie (Carlyle) says crude leaks out of Hormuz but gasoline and diesel do not because a product tanker is a sitting time bomb, so refined product supply is the tighter constraint
If you were trying to sneak a tanker past the Straits of Hormuz right now, would you take one that's laden with gasoline and diesel or one laden with crude? You're going to take the one laden with crude because the one with gasoline is a sitting time bomb.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Peter Schiff says energy stocks are still going higher even after the run, because the AI build-out will consume enormous energy and oil companies will make a lot of money.
I bought a lot more energy stocks myself on the last time we had a big pullback, which I think was earlier in the year. But I still think that they're going higher.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Peter Schiff expects oil prices to be higher, not lower, when the Iran war ends, and possibly a lot higher.
I think regardless, I think oil prices are headed higher, not lower when the war is over. And they could be headed a lot higher.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Peter Schiff predicts the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be exhausted before the Iran war ends.
It's going to be empty before this war ends.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Peter Schiff says oil is going above its 2008 record of about $140 to at least $200 a barrel, possibly more.
I think we're going higher than that. So I would say at least $200 a barrel could be more.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +7.1% · 93.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Helima Croft (RBC) says Middle East and Russian refinery damage has created a spare-capacity shortage that is driving diesel prices higher.
we're facing a refinery shortage in terms of spare capacity and that's profoundly impacting diesel prices.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +8.9% · 91.48 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Chris Grisanti (MAI Capital) says households will get shockingly high first heating bills as it turns cold in November, around the midterms.
as we get towards the midterm elections it gets colder as November comes and so all of a sudden folks are gonna get their first heating bill this season and it's going to be shockingly high.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +8.9% · 91.48 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Rule tells Lin that given the Hormuz closure he is surprised oil is this low; he and the market underestimated floating and strategic inventories.
I would be surprised the oil price was this low.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.2% · 82.23 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Todd Horwitz expects lower lows in oil and would not be surprised to see it in the 60s or mid-50s before the end of 2026.
And I expect to see lower lows. In fact, I would not be surprised at all if we get back into the 60s or mid 50s before years over.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.2% · 85.01 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Todd Horwitz says there is a glut of crude and high pump prices reflect a refining bottleneck, not a crude shortage.
There's a glut of oil. The problem we have right now is they don't have enough refineries open to refine the oil that we have.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.2% · 85.01 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Stuart Livingstone-Wallace (Bloomberg News) tells Bloomberg's Horizons Middle East that covert Hormuz shuttles, Fujairah/Red Sea diversions and China's reduced buying are holding Brent near $88, still well above normal but far below early-war $150-200 calls.
$88 is still significantly higher than where they would be in normal circumstances, because there is, at least on paper, a potential supply.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.9% · 84.50 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Dimitris Maniatis (Marisk) tells Bloomberg the Oman shadow-tanker spill, which he attributes to Ukrainian sabotage rather than Houthi or Iranian action, does not add to an already high regional shipping risk premium.
So I don't think it applies additional risk to the area which is already high risk, but it shows how a war very far away can have implications in a totally different part of the world.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.9% · 84.50 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Dimitris Maniatis (Marisk) tells Bloomberg the salvage operation alone for the Caroline Bezenghi spill off Oman will cost $200-500 million, excluding long-term consequences he cannot estimate.
then we're definitely estimating from $200 million all the way up to a significant higher amount of around $500 million.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.9% · 84.50 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Dimitris Maniatis (Marisk) tells Bloomberg international owners already avoid Hormuz and the dark shuttle tankers moving Gulf crude take a huge risk, with about 17 ADNOC-connected vessels hit so far.
These shuttles that we're talking about in the Strait of Hermos are taking a huge risk. And we see that ad-noc-connected vessels are continuously being targeted by the Iranians and many of them being hit.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.9% · 84.50 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Fong tells Fox that 40% of US container imports pass through California ports, so its vessel fines raise costs nationwide.
40% of the containers that come into the United States go through California ports.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.9% · 82.40 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
K.T. McFarland (former deputy national security advisor) tells Fox Business that Gulf oil exports via Hormuz and pipelines are probably about 15 million barrels a day versus 20 million before the war, a 20-25% reduction.
The bottom line is between what's somehow moving it through the Strait of Hormuz and what's moving out of the region with pipelines is probably 15 million where it used to be 20 million. So it's a reduction, maybe 20%, 25%.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.9% · 82.40 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
K.T. McFarland (former deputy national security advisor) tells Fox Business that oil at roughly $80 a barrel versus $71 before the Iran war shows Iran's claimed control of the Strait is barely moving the price of oil.
The price of oil before the Iran war started was about low 70s, $71 a barrel. Now today, even with all the blockades and all the fighting in Iran saying they have control of the Strait, it's only about $80 a barrel.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.9% · 82.40 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Ros Mathieson (Bloomberg News) tells Guy Johnson that prior efforts to isolate Iran have not worked and it is unclear what pressure Bessent's new economic isolation plan can add.
so far the efforts to isolate Iran haven't really succeeded. The regime has many, many years of the ability to withstand sanctions and other financial and economic pressure.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.9% · 82.40 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Jurrien Timmer tells Bloomberg that oil has stayed orderly despite the Iran war but that could change at any moment, with China a potential swing exporter.
And yet oil prices do remain fairly orderly and they haven't really scared the market. I think that could change any moment. China may very well become the key player here because it actually has the ability to to export oil which not many others do.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.9% · 82.40 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
David Sacks tells Calacanis renewables cannot scale in the next year or two, so new data centers will be gas-powered.
The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas powered for the new data centers.
David Sacks · Craft Ventures / All-In Podcast · https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVzYGVJ8zUk @22:12 ↗WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.9% · 82.40 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Gavin Baker tells Sacks and Calacanis that data centers will run on natural gas for a while even though the world eventually runs on solar; bullish US gas demand.
I think solar the world will eventually run on sunlight. But we're going to run on natural gas for a while.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.9% · 82.40 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
The Bloomberg Markets Live managing editor ('Christina Kino' as transcribed) says the correlation between oil and stocks/bonds/dollar peaked around May and has faded on headline fatigue.
the correlation has actually been fading a little bit over the last few months I mean we saw that kind of peaking around May of this year
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Rebecca Babin (CIBC Private Wealth) says oil stays in its $80-90 range unless Hormuz flows fall below 5 mb/d, the Houthis hit the Red Sea, or China imports jump back toward 11 mb/d; normalization of Hormuz plus non-OPEC supply would break it lower.
if we start to see that number materially decline below five million barrels a day due to increase kinetic military action that will break us out of the range
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Rebecca Babin (CIBC Private Wealth) says today's oil selling is a buyers' strike, not panic, and conviction buying only appears in the low $70s, well below current prices.
so I actually think the threshold for where buyers step in is just so much lower than where we're at right now it's kind of in that low 70s range where there's some conviction
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Rebecca Babin says China's buying, stockpile draws and product exports are the most important short-term swing factor for oil, having kept prices below $100.
I think in the short term China is the most important factor
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Rebecca Babin is worried about refinery outages: 96% utilization and deferred maintenance mean something will break, with 20%+ of global refining already lost and no buffer.
I'm pretty worried I mean there there's we're running at 96% refinery utilization at this point almost every refiner has pushed back maintenance to capture the crack spreads that are extremely elevated
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Rebecca Babin guesses retail gasoline will be about $4.00-4.30 and diesel above $5 (possibly $5.50-6 in a bad case) around early November, not as low as the administration wants.
if I had to put a range on it I would kind of put it in the four to four twenty five four thirty range of where where we see gasoline prices and I think diesel a little bit more of a wild card remains above five
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Rebecca Babin says traders' reluctance to go long oil into weekends continues: buyers will skip a 5% rally rather than risk a 10% drop until there is a breakthrough.
buyers are going to say you know what I'm willing to miss this five percent move higher because I do not want to lose ten percent of the downside
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Amos Hochstein (TWG Global) tells CNBC that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are spending billions to make Hormuz irrelevant because they do not expect the strait to reopen or Iran to give up control.
Saudi and the UAE and others are spending billions of dollars on making the strait eventually irrelevant, right? Building massive infrastructure.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Amos Hochstein (TWG Global) tells CNBC that Saudi Arabia and the UAE spending billions to make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant shows they expect Iran to keep control and the strait not to reopen.
Saudi and the UAE and others are spending billions of dollars on making the strait eventually irrelevant, right? Building massive infrastructure. You don't spend that kind of money, and this is serious money, if you think that the straits reopened or that Iran is gonna give up the control.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Clem Chambers will not call oil back to $100 by the November midterms but says all energy will get much more expensive over the long term as electricity is redirected to reindustrialization.
Nobody wants high oil prices. But I mean, the long term, all energy is going to get much more expensive.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Mark Zandi says if Hormuz stays closed for the next few weeks to couple of months and inventories keep draining, oil prices will jump and gasoline heads back toward $4.55.
But if the war goes off the rails and the straight doesn't reopen at some point here in the next few weeks, next couple of months, and inventories of oil globally continue to wind down, at some point, prices are going to jump.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +22.6% · 81.25 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Courtney McBride (Bloomberg national security reporter) tells the anchors that despite Pakistan's optimism, US and Iran rhetoric is hardening and the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen soon.
The Strait of Hormuz does not appear to be opening anytime soon despite this optimistic messaging we're hearing.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.27 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Dibo tells Lacqua Goldman's base case is that oil prices ultimately come down, and base effects shrink oil's contribution to headline inflation regardless.
So our base case is that oil prices will ultimately come down but even if you look at year over year inflation just because of base effects the contribution of oil to headline inflation should start to moderate in coming months.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.27 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Will Kennedy (Bloomberg) tells Lacqua that the longer Hormuz stays disrupted, the more inventory draws will tighten the whole oil complex, especially diesel and jet fuel.
But the longer the situation persists the more danger is that we'll have to continue to draw down on those inventories and we will see a tightening across the whole oil complex.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.27 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Negah Angha (King's College London) tells Lacqua there will be no US-Iran grand bargain any time soon; Hormuz access will hinge on the coming weeks of talks with Oman.
But I don't see a grand bargain anytime soon and we'll have to see what happens over the next couple of weeks in these discussions with Oman about the Strait of Hormuz access points.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.27 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Sunil Kumar of Spinneys tells Bloomberg it will add two Saudi stores by end-2026 or Q1 2027 and open its first two Philippines stores in December or January.
Saudi we have already four stores and we are looking for two more stores either end of this end of this year or the first quarter of twenty twenty seven. We are moving to Philippines. We will be opening our first two stores in end of December or in January.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.8% · 83.20 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Donald Trump tells reporter Josh Wingrove the Strait of Hormuz is open now and controlled by the US Navy blockade.
the only one that has control of the Strait of Hormuz right now is the United States Navy. We have a blockade that's been infallible. It's a steel wall.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.8% · 83.20 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Francisco Blanch (BofA) tells CNBC Hormuz traffic is 5-10 ships a day versus about 140 pre-war, so the energy market cannot normalize while restrictions persist.
We are seeing just about five to ten ships a day. We need to see about 140 to be back at pre-war levels.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Francisco Blanch tells CNBC ship flow through Hormuz must rise roughly tenfold (80-100 a day) to normalize oil prices and prevent an escalation into winter.
we need to see roughly ten times the flow of ships to normalize prices and prevent an escalation into the winter.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Francisco Blanch (BofA) tells CNBC his base case is Brent at $70-80 assuming a US-Iran resolution, with prices creeping higher into winter if there is none.
expecting oil to be in the 70 to 80 dollar barrel range for Brent on the assumption that we were going to see some resolution. But if we don't, we're going to keep creeping higher into the winter.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Blanch tells CNBC only 5-10 ships a day transit Hormuz versus ~140 pre-war.
we are seeing just about five to ten ships a day. We need to see about 140 to be back at pre-war levels.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Blanch tells CNBC Hormuz ship flows must rise roughly tenfold to normalize oil prices and avoid an escalation into winter.
we need to see roughly ten times the flow of ships to normalize prices and prevent an escalation into the winter
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Blanch tells CNBC diesel crack spreads are a record $80-85/bbl, exceeding the price of WTI.
We're seeing $80, $85 a barrel. So the price of diesel alone, just the differential is higher than the price of WTI.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Eric Nuttall (Ninepoint) tells BNN viewers the US SPR has fallen below 300 million barrels, its lowest since 1982-83, so a key oil price buffer is used up.
the US SBR has breached the 300 million barrel numbers. This is the lowest level since about 1982, 1983.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Nuttall tells BNN viewers the post-war floor for oil is at least $10 above the pre-war level and energy stocks still have meaningful upside.
the floor price for oil, I think, is at least $10 higher than when the war began. And as a result, we see very meaningful upside remaining in energy stocks.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Nuttall tells BNN viewers the war most likely ends with a deal that leaves Iran controlling the Strait ('the trade' = garble of 'the strait'), keeping oil structurally tighter.
Or two, we get the biggest talk of all time, and they give control of the trade over to Iran, which is what I think is going to happen.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Nuttall tells caller Rob that oil is massively underpriced given 7 mb/d of lost supply, with strength showing in refined products until China returns to the crude market.
My own view is the current oil price is massively underpriced. Most of us would have thought you'd be in the mid 150s right now.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Nuttall tells BNN viewers China's imports rising 950 kb/d July over June signal China returning to the oil market, which should push refined-product strength into WTI.
Encouragingly what we're seeing is their imports are up 950,000 barrels per day July over June. We think that trend will continue.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Nuttall tells BNN viewers that despite a 41% YTD gain, energy equities do not yet price even his $70 oil base case.
up 41% on the year, we don't think equity prices are reflecting our base case of $70 oil
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Nuttall tells BNN viewers US shale production will be modest-growth-to-plateau because Permian inventory is depleted, pushing US firms toward Canada.
We think that US shale production is going to be a very, very modest growth to plateau going forward
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Nuttall tells BNN viewers he is not bullish on North American natural gas for roughly the next six months, turning more positive only in 2027-2028.
We're not overly bullish on natural gas for the interim, let's call it six months-ish.
Natural gas since this was said: ▲ +0.0% · 2.79 → 2.79 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Nuttall tells BNN viewers energy investors should own oil names now, not natural gas names.
But you want to own oil right now. You don't want to own natural gas.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Nuttall tells BNN viewers Canada is the worst natural gas market on the planet, so he is not bullish on gas-weighted Advantage Energy.
natural gas name, largely focused on Canada, which is the crappiest natural gas market on planet Earth.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Nuttall tells caller Scott the WCS heavy differential should stay around $12.50, give or take a dollar or two.
We think 1250-ish is still a reasonable differential, you know, give or take a dollar or two in either direction.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Francisco Blanch of Bank of America tells CNBC Hormuz transits are 5-10 ships a day versus ~140 pre-war.
We are seeing just about 5 to 10 ships a day. We need to see about 140 to be back at pre-war levels.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Francisco Blanch of Bank of America tells CNBC oil prices will not normalize, and winter escalation risk remains, until Hormuz ship flow rises roughly tenfold.
So again, we need to see roughly 10 times the flow of ships to normalize prices and prevent an escalation into the winter.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Michael McKee tells Bloomberg the Iran war could well still be going in October-November 2026, which matters for gasoline prices ahead of the midterms.
Well, the president has to hope we're not talking about a war in October, November, uh, which we very well could be the way things are going now.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Michael McKee tells Bloomberg the Jones Act waiver will probably lapse at some point and the Jones Act itself will survive, as it always has.
So I, I would assume that this will probably expire at some point in the Jones act will remain.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Chris Kennedy tells Bloomberg the US has little leverage and more sanctions pressure is unlikely to bring Iran back to the table near term, barring a hard US line on China.
And I find it hard to envision a scenario where increased US sanctions pressure is really going to bring Iran back to the table in the near term.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +21.3% · 82.13 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Soundbite; thinks the Iran situation ends soon.
I think it's going to end pretty soon. I don't think they can go much longer.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.18 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Fox w/ Stuart Varney; Iran sharing Strait control would be a strategic defeat.
Indeed, that sounds deeply dangerous to me. And a strategic defeat for Western civilization.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +28.9% · 77.29 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Axios: US-Iran-Oman interim deal near, announcement aimed for today; Brent ~78-79. EVENT: will, days.
The strait's going to be open very soon or they're going to get hit very hard and then the strait's going to be open.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +32.5% · 75.22 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Responding to the 'Superman monetary policy' question and Neel Kashkari's ('Neil Kaskari' in transcript) view that the Fed has a role addressing supply shocks; she adds the Fed must guard against second-round effects [267960-282800].
So I have definitely been in the, of the view that you should look through supply shocks. I think that, you know, the June PC inflation data, you know, kind of validate that, right? We saw there that when we had the lull in the conflict in the Middle East, oil prices came down, we got inflation relief, right?
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +31.5% · 75.77 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Direct rebuttal to Bessent's deal optimism, taped with Andrew Ross Sorkin at Aspen; Reuters is simultaneously reporting the U.S. has used up virtually all its long-range precision missiles.
Even if there is a deal, it's not clear that it's a sustainable deal. We've been through this before, at least our geopolitical team is skeptical that any deal will be enforced. I think we're going to be in a muddle for a while. There are two ways out of the muddle. The first is that the Chinese intervene and really pressure the Iranians for a real deal. The Chinese have shown no inclination to do that. And the second is a significant escalation beyond just air, even ground forces, which we have shown no inclination to do.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +31.5% · 75.77 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Against the reported Iran-Oman toll deal; a fees-based deal unsatisfactory to the president.
We cannot leave Iran in control of the straits of Amuz in any way, shape, or form. That's a fact. We need to go back to pre-February 28th when we began the war. Free navigation, international waters, nobody owns any of it, and nobody can control any of it or influence it.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +31.5% · 75.77 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Predicts the violate-and-renegotiate pattern repeats. EVENT: will, hedged.
So I think we may get a deal on the straights. They'll drag out the nuclear deal as much as they possibly can.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +31.5% · 75.77 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
On the record-high rally after Bessent's deal-today-or-tomorrow line; success has been redefined down to the strait alone.
The market loves what it heard from the Secretary this morning about free navigation. The qualification, and it's an important one, is that all the focus now is simply on the Strait. When the war started, the Strait wasn't the issue. There was a number of other issues that needed to be resolved. Now they've been put aside and all the focus is on the Strait.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +31.5% · 75.77 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
From Aspen: don't trust the deal headlines; in a muddle for a while. EVENT: wont (enforced deal), hedged.
Even if there is a deal, it's not clear that it's a sustainable deal. We've been through this before. At least our geopolitical team is skeptical that any deal will be enforced. I think we're going to be in a muddle for a while. They're two ways out of the muddle. The first is that the Chinese intervene and really pressure the Iranians for a real deal. The Chinese have shown no inclination to do that. And the second is a significant escalation beyond just air, even ground forces, which we have shown no inclination to do.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +31.5% · 75.77 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Against the day's 5 percent oil drop: doubts the White House accepts the Iran-Oman Hormuz arrangement. EVENT: wont.
The Omanis and Iran have been discussing a deal on the waterway. I don't see how the White House will agree to this. And so we have this constant cycle of escalation and de-escalation.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +24.0% · 80.34 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
The war left Iran with more Hormuz leverage than seven months ago; asymmetric power markets misprice.
Iran has been strengthened counterintuitively by this conflict, after this conflict.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +24.0% · 80.34 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Oval Office: strait completely open by tomorrow as phase one; Iran denies talks. EVENT: will, dated Aug 4.
We're talking about the straight, the opening of the straight, having it open literally by tomorrow, completely open. And that's phase one.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +24.0% · 80.34 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Zero ships through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on his screen; inventories critical into the midterms.
That continues to be a very important risk because if we do run dry in tanks, especially in Europe, then we may run out of marine fuel, of jet fuel, of fertilizer, of helium. And obviously this creates a jump risk in prices, especially for energy
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +24.0% · 80.34 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
dated numeric oil call for the midterms, framed as a consumer tailwind after the war gas-price spike
“by the time we get to the midterms that oil will be back into the low 70s, 60s”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.7% · 84.67 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
after shifting output to jet fuel amid the war supply squeeze
“all the price signals are that we are short diesel and gasoline”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.7% · 84.67 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
pared energy from overweight, kept for war risk
“We're more equal weight on energy now”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.7% · 84.67 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
cushion storage capacity vs the 70-90M normal
“right now we're just dropped under 20 and so things are really really tight”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.2% · 83.59 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
says 90 dollar oil is stabilized and not pressuring markets
“We're in around $90 a barrel of oil. It makes a lot of sense right now.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.2% · 83.59 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
his count of the supply loss. API's own estimate; prices fell anyway, the puzzle he addresses
“Middle Eastern exports right now are down 41 percent”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +25.7% · 79.26 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
his read on oil supply vs the war premium. bear on OIL PRICES, which is benign for equities in his frame
“I think actually there's an oversupply”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.6% · 82.61 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
supply at risk if both waterways close. explicitly conditional on full closure of both routes
“five to up to seven million barrels per day”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.6% · 82.61 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
his core claim on energy markets. fund manager talking his book, disclosed
“Investors in the market in general have been unbelievably complacent about the global energy picture”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.6% · 82.61 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
the drawdown he sees ahead
“we have a lot, lot more to come in terms of inventory draws”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.6% · 82.61 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
normalization lag even if the strait reopened today. consequent of a stripped conditional; keep the hypothetical attached
“it would take another two months”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.6% · 82.61 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
his multi-year oil floor view
“price of oil isn't going to go back down to the $60 level”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.6% · 82.61 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
the tape as he reported
“Brent was about $100 a barrel when I was leaving the office”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +11.6% · 89.31 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
escalation risk to energy infrastructure. STRENGTH corrected firm->hedged: conditional, framed as the market's fear; he notes the worst case has not materialized
“that's infrastructure that can't easily come back online”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +11.6% · 89.31 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
recent price move. time-anchored tape fact, goes stale
“brent has risen by about 40 percent”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +11.6% · 89.31 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
US-Iran strikes in an 11th day, Houthis threatening the Red Sea, oil options positioning at records. He notes this holds 'despite some apparent anticipation that at some stage, Donald Trump will once more pivot towards peace' @84:30, adding Trump is not in a rush to do that.
“Your Brent is substantially above $90 a barrel and looking like it's going to stay there.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +14.8% · 86.83 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
On the collapsed US-Iran memorandum of understanding over the Strait of Hormuz and an 11th night of strikes; he notes Trump said walking away now would have been 'very successful, but they're not going to be doing that' @66:20, and Houthis threatening any ship calling at Saudi ports widens the conflict.
“And until one side buckles, I guess, it's just going to be an escalation, but not back to as bad as where we were. So it looks like it's going to persist for some time yet.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +14.8% · 86.83 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Answering whether Iran moved centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain: 'You're talking about the centrifuges. It doesn't mean anything unless they have the materials' @0:44, and 'But we'll be hitting that area pretty soon and very heavily' @1:03. Anchor cites Axios that Trump may launch a massive joint campaign with Israel @1:26.
“We follow the material, that's where the action is, and we'll be hitting that area probably pretty soon.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +14.8% · 86.83 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
He says 'Iran's best days are in the past' @2:03 and that each day of US strikes adds 'months and years to the timeline' for Iran to dig out @2:25; on the nuclear program, 'they cannot build a bomb' because the infrastructure 'just doesn't exist now and won't exist for some time' @3:14.
“So, the notion that Iran will ever get back to the level of threat it was a year ago in the foreseeable future is literally completely off the table.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +14.8% · 86.83 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Brent was up more than 4 percent toward $95 as both sides played down talks. He reports a wider overnight US attack on Iran and Iranian retaliation on Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, and that Tehran believes 'it's the U.S. that should take the first step to de-escalate' @12:34. Same war story as Jennifer Welch on the Jul 21 tape, but a different speaker, so each is filed once from their fullest statement per the Jul 22 addendum.
“the chances or the prospects for an imminent resumption of serious negotiations look quite slim.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +14.8% · 86.83 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Spoken en route to a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover after the 11th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran @0:59. The next transcript line, 'Everybody wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon' @0:29, is an apparent whisper garble (almost certainly 'Nobody wants') and is excluded from the quote. Reporter notes Rubio said Iran does not 'seem to be serious' about a settlement (paraphrase, not filed).
“Well, Americans aren't against the war, a poll just came out, Americans don't want to have gasoline prices, but they're not against the war, that just came out loud and clear in a poll.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +14.8% · 86.83 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
The post continues 'including those located next to or in the capital city of Tehran' @0:49. Oil prices reacting overnight; matches the video title about threatening retaliation against civilian targets. Filed secondhand: written statement read aloud by the reporter, not Trump's voice.
“anytime the Islamic Republic of Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether it be by missile, rocket drone or any other device or weapon, the United States will bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +14.8% · 86.83 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Brent was near $88 on the day; he argues the screen price underprices a delivered barrel because refined products are already short in Europe ('it's still trading at a price as if oil was more than one hundred dollars' @16:36), citing a 25-minute diesel queue outside Paris and knocked-out Russian refining. Bab el-Mandeb closure would hit 'around 30 percent of global oil supply of oil and gas' @16:59.
“I should. We should see around one hundred dollars a barrel. And if if the Houthis they close the bottom end up straights I think we should see around one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.91 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
She argues Iran's leadership sees this as existential and can absorb pain, its drone capability is cheap and hard to eliminate, and that commercial shippers and insurers, not governments, decide when the strait is effectively open: 'Iran doesn't have to do much at all to raise the perception of risk. And that will be a very difficult matter to resolve' @12:39.
“And so continuing to attack these assets that are being used to affect shipping is probably not going to be enough to change Iran's strategic calculus.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.91 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
After 10 nights of strikes he notes two more tankers were attacked overnight off the UAE and Oman ('clearly there's no decline in Iran's ability to continue to threaten shipping' @6:19). On the Houthi Red Sea threat: 'it's a big deal. Assuming it happens' @6:50 and 'it's something the market needs to pay a lot of attention to' @7:43. Bloomberg staff analysis rather than a guest, filed because he takes an explicit directional view on the threat's persistence.
“it's very hard to see going forward how many more nights of U.S. military attacks will it take before that capability is eliminated completely. One would think that it might be almost impossible.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.91 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
On the US-Iran war and the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping. She says 'what we're in now is an escalation spiral with the United States and Iran both looking to gain leverage' @17:24, and asked if it gets worse before it gets better answers 'I think it will. And I don't know that it will actually ever get better.' @17:59. Earlier she calls the Houthi Red Sea threat 'yet another point of economic pain for the global economy' @15:43. The Jul 22 tape covers the same war via Onur Ant, a different speaker, so both are filed once.
“we are likely to land ourselves in what we're referring to as a low-intensity protracted conflict or a forever war”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.91 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Host: all-out-war headlines and a Houthi threat to blockade Saudi Arabia, yet 'Brent WTI up less than one percent each' @0:12. Speaker adds 'some people were long into the sell off' and are taking off positions @0:27, plus rumors of a six-day Iran-US ceasefire: 'we may see something that establishes some sort of ceasefire in the coming days' @1:03. Caveats 'I haven't traded the market in a few months so I can't be confident' @0:35.
“The market is paying attention. The market is exhausted.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.91 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Asked whether a truce would restore shipper confidence. Adds 'I think it does include a toll booth. I think it includes a framework that looks like a security framework' @2:14, likely rebranded as 'maritime security' @2:26, and 'that's going to take a while to form' @2:10.
“I think we're getting to the point now where the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea for that matter need to have a new framework. Right. The framework of the freedom of the seas. That framework is broken”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.91 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
'The real constraint is refined products' @3:24: no product exports from the Middle East plus constrained Russian refined products, while crude has had 'Herculean responses' (Chinese import drop, Saudi/UAE rerouting, SPR) @3:38. '5 10' is whisper for $5.10 diesel. Also questions the '43 day supply' SPR headline as underspecified @4:35 while noting 70 million barrels of committed SPR releases remain @5:34.
“refined products continue to remain significantly tighter than crude. And they have our attention as well. We've got gasoline back above four dollars on average and diesel at 5 10.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.91 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Brent above $90 after a ninth night of US strikes on Iran (from ~$70 at the start of July). 'Yields will have to reprice higher if you're going to have oil in a sustained period where it's 90 plus' @7:20; 'That is not a pretty picture for anybody really' @7:35.
“So for some time we were getting used to oil being in a nice range between 70 and 80 dollars. Now we're suddenly thinking it might be in a 90 to 100 dollar range again.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.23 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
With Brent ~$90.84 and Hormuz flows choked ('$19.91' is whisper's garble of the price level ~$90-91 @64:48): demand 'rising from all these different centers at the same time' @64:32; on $100: 'analysts and traders [I] speak to, are not necessarily throwing out that number yet... when prices rise far enough, demand destruction will happen. So... jury's out' @64:43-64:59.
“So I think the outlook in a sense, pretty bullish, price is probably going to rise.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.23 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Amid nine days of US strikes in Iran and oil closing higher, Smith says tankers are being targeted, three routes have slowed, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (a fifth of global oil supply) has 'ground to a halt.'
“So for all intents and purposes, the Strait is basically closed.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.23 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
On day nine of US strikes, Esfandiari says both sides are entrenched on red lines with no path to de-escalation; US war goals have shifted from regime change to merely reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and only diplomacy could end it.
“I think right now we are on track towards this becoming the beginning of another forever war.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.23 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
He is making the case for oil as an investment: longer-term expectations have reset higher: 'we're looking at values today that are, you know, roughly $70 a barrel, not $60 a barrel' @0:49: and supply security plus high global gas prices ('close to $58 per MMBTU' in Europe @1:27) reinforce it.
“The Strait of Hormuz is not opening anytime soon in the way people expected.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.23 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Soundbite excerpted in a news brief; she adds 'the market is still quite complacent despite the price increase we've seen' @1:34 and 'I expect to see diesel and gasoline prices remain much, much higher' @1:43. Backdrop on tape: WTI hit $85 (highest since mid-June) and national average gas back at $4/gallon.
“Do we think prices should or could go to triple digits? Absolutely. Also, because, remember, the market is short as well.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +19.7% · 83.23 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
President wants oil down into the midterms; heavy technical resistance; he invites accountability.
“I do not anticipate oil going back above 100 this year... I think by the midterms, we're back to the 60s.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.8% · 82.49 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Marvels that oil experts were 'this wrong' about a Strait of Hormuz disruption: crude traded DOWN through the initial shutdown and only rebounded on renewed bombing. 'I don't fall for the trap again, especially when inflation swaps this week actually went down.' @23:34-23:36; two-year inflation swaps at the week's lows.
“the second you stop bombing, we have the next ceasefire. What's going to happen to crude? I can't imagine it doesn't go straight back down.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.8% · 82.49 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
He calls Trump's China election-interference speech 'theatrical misdirection' @10:11 from 'an unresolved war in the Middle East... actually going back into a state of all-out war' @10:22-10:29. Canonical mapped to oil-gas as nearest key: the conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure are the ledger's live oil-price driver.
“I think there's a very real problem that Donald Trump has, which is that the war against Iran may not be wrapped up or stabilized by November. The indicators are that it won't be.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.8% · 82.49 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Asked if he is more or less bullish on oil stocks at $80 than at pre-war $60: 'probably about the same' - 'we think the the stocks are still about as attractive as they were back in january' @16:13. Also 'we are still optimistic on oil prices and holding energy positions for the long term' @15:20; Oxbow re-allocated to energy as oil fell below $70 after the Iran-war spike above $110-120 Brent, and has been adding oil-services names.
“one thing we notice is when you get more geopolitical events like this we think that does raise the floor on the oil price that there is going to be more of a premium on a barrel of oil”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +20.8% · 82.49 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Walking back his earlier higher-for-longer fuel call: 'It's still going to be elevated, but probably, at least for now, it looks like not as high as we feared they might be three or four months ago' @2:30. He credits the oil market's workarounds to the Strait of Hormuz closure ('tankers slipping through without their transponders or pipelines or drawing down inventories' @2:06) and still expects 'a muddle through in Iran' @2:21. Fuel is up $6 billion vs United's start-of-year plan @0:35.
“the oil prices, I don't think, are going to be as high as we suspected.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +26.2% · 78.95 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
She notes the backward-looking data 'are not actually capturing a bunch of what is happening with respect to the conflict in Iran' @0:53, with inflation 'in the mid threes' @0:24 and the labor market 'doing pretty well' @0:34.
“or I suspect upward pressure on oil prices and gas prices is gonna continue in the next few weeks.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +26.2% · 78.95 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Played clip amid the fifth straight day of US-Iran strikes with oil under $80. Immediately before, asked 'Do you see inflation at the end of the year less than it is now?' he answers 'Well, I think so' @0:20. The 'drop like a rock' is conditional on the conflict ending. Clip date not stated on tape; aired Jul 16.
“oil is going to be a little bit of a yo-yo for a while. It goes up a little bit, goes down a little bit, and when this is over, oil is going to drop like a rock.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +26.2% · 78.95 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Near-term: futures 'telling us the war is over'; the Hormuz tracker says closed yet 57 transponder-on ships in transit; the post-reopening surge hits refineries next week; midterm incentive for lower prices
“I do have a very bullish thesis on oil sort of medium to long term.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +25.2% · 79.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Fox package on the fee reversal; the clip is from ~a month earlier (per the correspondent) rejecting Hormuz tolls in advance; Trump floated and withdrew the 20% fee within 24 hours this week
“It's an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +25.2% · 79.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
'the situation in energy, I would argue, is pretty dire' (@4:49): Hormuz lost again, Ukraine strikes took out 'more than 50% of the refining capacity out of Russia' (@4:35), inventory 'insurance policies' exhausted, and 'there is no strategic petroleum reserve for products' (@10:08). He calls market calm 'the abundance illusion' (@6:56).
“you have diesel, I think in New York, harbors like $130 or $140 a barrel, because we are now witnessing the probability of running into real shortages of products.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +25.2% · 79.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Argues markets look through the war because of workarounds - private inventories, the Saudi east-west pipeline, a mooted third UAE pipeline: 'as long as we have those workarounds in place and we double down on them, we can circumvent the rising price of oil' (@42:48).
“Yeah, I mean, I think anything above $100 a barrel starts to catch investors' attention.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +25.2% · 79.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
After a host interjection he adds 'And I think the market is pricing that victory in already' @10:08. Context: six months into the conflict versus a promised six weeks @9:43, WTI cited at $78 on the show @10:47, VIX at 16 @11:54.
“So the outcome is gonna be a huge win for everyone in the world except for Iran. Whether that comes tomorrow or in a few weeks or even in a few months, I still think it's a win for us.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +25.2% · 79.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
'This sort of escalation to de-escalate or just simple escalation risks being uncontrolled or risks simply being endless.' (@19:25); on reopening the strait: 'You've got to open it and you've got to maintain it being open. And that is simply not a task that can come without a huge risk and cost to the U.S.' (@20:09); calls the FDI-for-fees swap 'a bit of sleight of hand', no new commitments (@18:06)
“the only way it's going to come to an end is a negotiated end.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +25.6% · 79.34 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Told Fox (aired on CNBC) after weekend US strikes on Iran; adds allies will reimburse the US; crude above $74 on the tape
“So we're just going to hit him very hard and we're going to keep the Strait and we'll probably run it. We'll become the guardian of the Strait.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.14 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Military assessment: tactically sound, strategically not deterring Iran; oil relevance inferential (meaning-verified)
“The strikes are probably hitting where they need to. But we don't seem to be moving the ball. We don't seem to be impressing the Iranians tremendously.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.14 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Relative-value claim (0% vs 15.5 FCF yield); BOOK FLAG: he is launching his own oil company
“they pay dividends. And this is why I don't understand is you're buying these hyperscalers that pay, they have 0% free cashflow versus these oil majors at 15.5.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.14 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Named-winner structural call; he adds China gets there first (@23:22)
“The first person who can build out their entire power grid with zero marginal costs, meaning just renewables, batteries, and nuclear power wins. And the Americans and Europeans are so asleep at the wheel, they're arguing about this stuff like it has something to do with the environment.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.14 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
MEANING GUARD: his 'oil's dead' is the LONG-RUN structural story (electrified drone warfare), fully consistent with his near-term oil bullishness; quoting it against his oil book without this context is a misread
“war machine 1.0, meaning artificial muscle, tanks and, you know, all the oil driven stuff. That stuff can't hold a candle to the AI drone war kit 2.0.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.14 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
His own company lists on London AIM 'sometime in the month of July' (@19:42); maximal book-talk but the hardest deadline on the tape
“By the way, we're IPO in our company in 1947 here on the London AIM. So, it'll be a publicly traded entity in”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.14 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Asked if the market pricing containment (Brent high 70s, not 80s-90s) is the right call
“I do. I think it will be contained. I think neither side want to go back to a full conflict, but both sides wanna make that point for domestic reasons.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +27.5% · 78.14 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
On whether the strait stays open after the ceasefire ended
“We're stuck with the IRGC, and they have also found power or weapon that they can close the Straits of Hormuz.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“I just don't have a lot of confidence in the negotiations, really. You have to have a real big stick to get a good negotiation.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“I don't think these talks are going to make that much progress. Both sides' red lines are still too far apart, and neither side has really shown any willingness to move towards the other.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“We are looking at the potential for a protracted conflict, a long conflict, where you do have these cycles of fighting and rest and reconstitution in order to build up to get ready for the next round of potential attacks.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Why investors shrug at the Iran fire exchange
“There's been a lot of oil demand destruction globally. And so in addition to everybody figuring out alternative ways to get around, people are figuring out how to consume less.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Above the $70-75 futures strip, he notes
“we're a little concerned that what we might see is something closer to $80 for the rest of this year as the globe tries to fill up those strategic reserves and get through the high demand summer season.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
If peace breaks out, he prefaces
“I think the March, I think it's March 26th was the peak for oil.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
“And if you look at all the gas names, they are all trading at trough levels. So if you're looking to take some of your oil gains and you wanna perhaps take some exposure into the gas names, gas is looking really cheap.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
WTI at $71.50 at taping
“I think that if the talks start again and there's no really big military action, I think we go back down to the mid 60s. I think that's another great buying opportunity for investors.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Assumes ~500 kb/d SPR refill plus winter demand
“we're going to be $80 average in Q4 because people will start to see that inventories are being rebuilt”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Range he gives: roughly $70 low, $110 high
“And then I think in 2027, we're using an average price of $90 per barrel for the year.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
His April 2025 buy signal preceded a doubling in the TSX energy index, he notes
“We think this next buy signal, which will come in the next couple of weeks on a mid 60s price, will be another great buying opportunity.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Strictly conditional; he explicitly rejects the 20.4% prediction-market odds of $140+ oil
“If the price of oil gets up above $120, $130, I think we're going to see significant demand destruction in probably a global recession.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Winter 2026-27; invokes 1970s-style rationing
“We're going to probably see higher shortages and potentially rationing of gasoline or diesel at the pump during the winter.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
“I believe that this back and forth tit-for-tat between United States and Iran is just something to drag out for a number of weeks, maybe at the month, a month or two, and then I think they'll get back to the bargaining table”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
On the Hormuz supply loss shrinking as reroutes build
“I think by the end of the year, that's maybe going to be 3 or 4 million and I think the world can adjust to a 3 or 4 million less production.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Now his most bullish near-term call, ranked above uranium
“But if we're talking second half of 2026, I think we see oil come higher, significantly higher from where we are now.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
“So I think we're stuck between 65 and 80. And unless we get above 80 and the Iran situation is worsening where there's no ships going through Hormuz, I just don't think it matters for the markets.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Undated; his AI-solves-energy end state
“eventually crude will go to zero. It will go to zero because we will solve energy at the fission, fusion, name anything you want.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
The episode's headline finding
“I did not expect that China would cut crude oil imports by 5 million barrels a day, between February and June. That is our gargantuan swing. That alone absorbed roughly half to two thirds of the Asian crude oil deficit alone.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
So the import cut is not demand destruction, he argues; likely invisible stock releases
“And yet we have seen no evidence of a reduction in domestic mobility in China. Flights are fine, road congestion's fine, truck transits are fine.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
“China is now arguably the single is taking the spot of the United States and even Saudi Arabia as the kind of key swing balance in the global oil market”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Managed-money net positioning at its low of the year, he says
“when we got down to like low 70s on Brent that was probably at least 10 bucks was just that net short kind of weighing down on the front contract in particular. Now I expect that to reverse.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
His short-covering rally call
“So I think we're going to have this big J flip on the other side that you always need a fundamental trigger we didn't know what it was going to be but now it seems like we might get a re closure the Strait of Hormuz and a rebar a reentry of China to the crude oil market and on water all at the same time which is kind of the ultimate trigger for this short covering event that was bound to happen eventually”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
On the June 17 MOU; 'MEU' is the tape's rendering of MOU
“the problem you fundamentally is it's unstable Trump kind of had one understanding of the MEU Iran clearly had another”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
What he heard across the Iranian political spectrum
“they all say the straight of Hormuz is never going back to the status quo of where it was before the war”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
A rare on-record mea culpa on his own prior odds
“I would say the likelihood of Hormuz being closed was like less than 1%, obviously, that turned out to be wrong this year.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
“we're here in July 2026 Brent shorts, Brent crude shorts are record levels”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
“there's no real macro reason to go max short Brent or WTI crude here to bet on prices collapsing from 80”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
“you're gonna have a building tank farms is gonna be a booming business for the next two years, no matter what happens”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
'strait or homos' is the tape's rendering of Strait of Hormuz
“I'm not that convinced that we are going to see pre-war levels of flows from strait or homos and the market will soon see that as well, I believe, when we look at the inventory picture for products.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Her structural diesel-tightness thesis
“I think therefore the demand increase, supply somewhat decreased because of the crude slate marginal changes in production and the refining kit is not keeping up with those changes”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
No new construction era despite record margins, she argues
“So I don't think that for refining, we'll see golden years again in terms of building new kits, because at the end of the day, we also need to acknowledge that the world is moving away from fossil fuels. It is a slow decline, it's not immediate”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
“I don't think that Iranian barrels will just go away, you'll eventually find a home at the right price.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Her September window call for the arb closing
“In three months time, do we need WTI in Asia? Probably not because we should have already more flows from the Middle East.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +39.5% · 71.41 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Jeff Currie says energy's roughly 3% weight in the S&P 500 needs to rise to 10-15%, with the share taken out of the AI sector.
energy as a share of the S&P. It runs around 3 percent. And by the way the core of the super cycle argument is that that share needs to be closer to 10 to 15
S&P 500 since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 7,544 → 7,592 · as of 2026-09-10
Bullish
Jeff Currie says the scarcity problem in refined oil products persists right now, which keeps the backwardation premium in place.
All I know is we had a scarcity problem and we still do in the products right now
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +38.2% · 72.08 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“I think oil is going lower. I think, you know, we're going to see the low 60s fairly soon. 45 might be aggressive next year”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
“I think oil will start hitting higher in about a week's time.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“Oil by your end. Higher or lower than 70. Lower.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“I think in the middle of next year, crude's going to be at about 45 bucks a barrel.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“oil glut in the short term, I can see it dropping to low 60s, $45 a barrel might be a little polyannish.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
If you believe bitcoin is a digital store of value, he argues:
“We're going to see new nominal all time highs for the price of crude before this is over”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Asked how he'd build a portfolio today:
“I think that NatGas, in terms of commodity demand globally into the next five or 10 years, has a better opportunity than oil does”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Citing inventory-based fair-value models for crude:
“Global onshore oil inventories are at their lowest levels on record. That's despite the biggest release in history from strategic stockpiles”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
“I think the market is overly bearish now”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Citing inventory-based fair-value models for crude:
“they think that Brent should be at roughly $130 to $140 today, given where inventories stand.”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Asked about the Iran war's likely duration (Jul 2):
“I think our house view is this war is not a many months situation. I think in the weeks, maybe it's a four to six weeks resolution”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
“I can kind of see Brent Ti, I can see 75 Ti, 80 Brent”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.4% · 68.55 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
“We're down 8.6 million barrels per day of production, and we're hurtling towards the wall unless things radically improve soon”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.1% · 68.69 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
“I believe we started… the third energy and commodity super cycle”; WTI ~$80 avg 2026 / ~$90 2027 per interview
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.1% · 68.69 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“This is the peak gasoline demand period… It'll fall off from here. I suspect by Labor Day you will see a considerable price drop at the pump” (~$3.25 vs President's “aspirational” $2.50)
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.1% · 68.69 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
“We think the oil price could drop precipitously”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +45.1% · 68.69 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
“I tend to think we hover around this kind of 70, 75 level” (crude); notes “right now estimates have a surplus of about 4 million barrels a day for 2027”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +43.4% · 69.50 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Very bearish oil; crude 'can only get to ~$125'
Mike Wilson · Morgan Stanley · BloombergWTI crude since this was said: ▲ +30.1% · 76.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Visser says he is buying energy (and silver, copper) because compute build-out needs scarce physical commodities.
I'm buying energy because all of these things that you mentioned to get to the point where we're actually producing compute, we need to have these physical commodities
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.88 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Visser says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen when needed because China needs Iranian/Russian oil.
So one of the reasons that I fully believe that the Strait of Hormuz will open up when it needs to is China needs oil
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +17.4% · 84.88 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Asked where a summer surprise could come from. She cites drawn-down global reserves and a coming rebuild cycle; earlier: 'oil prices are still high and I actually think we'll go higher' @1:28, and 'we have an allocation to energy in our portfolios as a hedge' @22:14.
“I think the thing that I struggle with is that like it seems to be hiding in plain sight Which is the fact that I think it's a rational Thing that oil could get to 150 160”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +10.7% · 90.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bullish
Piggybacking on Guild's oil call: 'I would not underestimate... everybody just went through this shock Where where inventories were put in jeopardy. The first thing they're gonna do is build those inventories' @22:36-22:50. He also flags rates: 'rates are telling you what what this market is thinking And we're gonna have to rationalize that at some point' @23:07.
“when you do get that if you do get that price appreciation It's not gonna come down quickly because they're gonna make sure that these inventories are Able to support them in times of turmoil”
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +10.7% · 90.03 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz tells Kitco the war fear premium is trading out of crude oil and should keep pushing oil prices down.
So you're seeing the fear premium trade out in the crude oil right now, which should help bring prices down
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +13.0% · 88.20 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Neutral
Gavin Baker tells All-In that US natural gas (NG1) is down this year while global LNG is up 100-200%, making the Hormuz closure relatively good for US re-industrialization and bad for Europe and Asia.
And what we make electricity with in America, overwhelmingly, is natural gas. And you can look it up, NG1, it is down this year.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +3.2% · 96.60 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
Bearish
Raoul Pal tells Mando the US may secure cheaper, more abundant energy via an Iran resolution he thinks has long been on the table, plus Venezuela, framed as the US securing inputs for the AI race.
maybe they're going to be able to secure cheaper and more abundant energy via getting the resolution in Iran, which I think has been on the table for a long time with the Israelis and the Saudis kind of driving in the background.
WTI crude since this was said: ▲ +68.6% · 59.12 → 99.65 · as of 2026-09-11
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We write down what public figures predict, in their exact words, and check the result when the deadline arrives. Every line links to its source. How we score · Corrections · The scoreboard · The data
© 2026 Pundit Rumble · independent and unaffiliated · updated every market morning · not investment advice.