P U N D I T R U M B L E The Tape Debates Scores

Markets Cycle

1 bull · 3 bear · exact words, dated and sourced

The count, last 30 days: 1 bull, 3 bear. The tape leans bear. A count, not a verdict.

What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.

Bear 2026-08-05

With S&P and Dow at all-time highs; end-stage-bubble and blow-off-top read.

I think we're sort of the end stage of a very long and vast Bubble in the stock market, which has been enhanced by below market interest rates and now Basically interest rates are in real terms adjusted for inflation near zero. So we're seeing Over the last quarter or so a big blow-off top In stock

Mark Thornton · Mises Institute (senior fellow; Austrian economist) - org from title/public record, not stated on tape · David Lin Report ↗

1 who lean the other way 9 more from Thornton

Bear 2026-08-05

Based on a 10-year moving-average valuation. EVENT: will, dated 10-year horizon.

The net expected return in stocks over the next 10 years is zero or negative

Mark Thornton · Mises Institute (senior fellow; Austrian economist) - org from title/public record, not stated on tape · David Lin Report ↗

1 who lean the other way 9 more from Thornton

Bull 2026-08-04

S&P ~20x vs EM ~10x, EM under-owned; expects EM currencies to appreciate.

I would say I'm more optimistic on EM equities in general than US equities and by the way, I've been doing this for over 30 years. I haven't said that till the last two years.

Ron Temple · Lazard chief market strategist · Bloomberg Television ↗

3 who lean the other way 3 more from Temple

Bear 2026-08-03

Stocks driven by AI (top 10 = 40% of index), bonds by fiscal term premium; the hedge is gone.

And therefore we may no longer have the property that you make money on one side and lose on the other, but you may actually lose on both.

Torsten Slok · Apollo Global (chief economist, partner) · Bloomberg Television ↗

1 who lean the other way 9 more from Slok

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