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Aswath Damodaran
NYU Stern professor of finance
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Prof G Markets w/ Ed Elson; none of the big AI spenders has articulated the business model.
But none of these companies is enunci ated what exactly the business model it is that they hope to deliver.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.3% · 26,691 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
Prof G Markets; Big Tech now effectively manufacturers building AI capacity, judged like manufacturers.
They're building huge capacity for whatever, AI products and services.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▼ -2.3% · 26,691 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
Owns the host's readback of his written bet: peak AI hit a few months ago, more consolidation and correction ahead, including smaller players. EVENT: will, months-ahead horizon.
Yes, and I'm including the smaller players as well.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 25,914 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
Mag 7 protected by cash flows; the shakeout hits the lesser companies (whisper renders Mag as MAX).
So I think when you see a shake out of the AI space, it's not so much the MAX 7 we should be watching, but the lesser companies.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 25,914 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
The fast rebound after the AI-fund blowup is FOMO flows, not fundamentals.
It's not like people are rethinking the fundamentals and coming back to investing. They just don't want to be left out of this party.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 25,914 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
His Mag-5 marginal ROIC analysis; capex continuing while returns fall.
the drop off in returns on capital is pretty amazing given how big these companies are. So unless they start delivering earnings, commensurate with the tens of billions of investment CapEx, you're going to see a very different kind of company emerging from the mix. More capital intensive, lower return investment capital company.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 25,914 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
CNBC, on whether the collapse previews a wider AI shakeout.
I think when you see a shake out of the AI space, it's not so much the MAX 7 we should be watching, but the lesser companies. And I think that the stories about situational awareness in particular point to what can happen very quickly in the rest of the AI space as the correction and the cleaning up continues.
Nasdaq since this was said: ▲ +0.6% · 25,914 → 26,082 · as of 2026-09-10
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