← Leaderboard
AL
Adam Linton
Bloomberg Markets Live team; name per whisper outro, verify spelling
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Host notes the market is pricing about 40 basis points of BoE hikes despite UK inflation at a 15-month low @1:37. He calls the morning CPI a 'third consecutive downside surprise' about 50bp below BoE forecasts @1:43, and says Bloomberg Economics sees roughly 3% inflation even as US-Iran escalation lifts energy, below the BoE's 3.5-4% danger zone.
“So to me, it does look a little bit stretched, particularly given the fact that, you know, even at the peak of the crisis, the Bank of England's were pretty reticent to be delivering rate hikes.”
BullEurope
leaning · 2026-07-22
Asked if European earnings can offset higher oil: 'that definitely appears to be the case for now' @2:34, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures 'just resilient' despite overnight US-Iran attacks and rising energy prices @2:39; adds weak US tech today would also be 'a positive for the European equity complex' @2:56.
“So, you know, it's a case of earnings are strong enough. They're expected to remain strong enough. In terms of the key sectors, it looks like energy, financials, and to a lesser extent consumer staples. They're providing an offset.”
With Healy just appointed chancellor after gilts closed, implying higher defense spending, and the government cutting taxes on energy bills with funding unclear, he notes UK 10-year yields were 'around about 5% yesterday already' and adds 'in the short term, UK paperwork probably underform that of the US' @1:15 (garble of 'UK paper will probably underperform'), with 'a bit of a runway where... we are going to see more fiscal angst' @1:31.
“And I think if you take that at a time when energy prices are high, that is going to be negative for gilts.”
Immediately follows his gilt-negative fiscal read; his point is that sterling is insulated from the fiscal angst hitting gilts because of its high carry.
“I think from an FX perspective, the pound doesn't really care too much. I think the high carry is more important.”
BullEurope
leaning · 2026-07-21
He marvels that with 'Brent was on a 90 handle', European natural gas at multi-month highs, 'stock 600 was doing nothing' and sits only 2% off all-time highs @2:02, having outperformed the US and Asia month to date; PMIs 'rose last month, expected to do so again' @2:29 and Q2 earnings are 'relatively strong, expected to show up momentum throughout the year' @2:33, with Europe 'offering an offset for any tech angst' @2:44.
“But also think from a macro perspective, there's relatively high bar to price a growth shock from the conflict at this stage.”
Follow Adam Linton
One short email when Adam puts a new call on the record, and when a verdict lands on one. Plain words, free.