The count, last 30 days: 2 bull, 4 bear. The tape leans bear. A count, not a verdict.
The tape
Jul 20
Aug 03
bullbearclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own
words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number
and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bull2026-08-04
Semis cheap, tech at a market multiple; categorical rejection of the 1999-2000 parallel.
And when you look at the S&P 500 and information technology, it looks nothing like what we had back in 1999 and 2000. So all of a sudden, all this talk about this being a tech bubble is kind of thrown out the window.
Avoid call on AI names priced on speculative cash flows 2-5 years out.
In other sectors or other areas, they're very high in the sense that if you're looking at certain AI names, and you look to the future, some of these companies are trading on speculative cash flows that may or may not materialize two to five years out. So as an investor, you want to stay away from that.
Owns the host's readback of his written bet: peak AI hit a few months ago, more consolidation and correction ahead, including smaller players. EVENT: will, months-ahead horizon.
Yes, and I'm including the smaller players as well.