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Tim Graf

State Street (head of macro strategy EMEA)
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Bull leaning · 2026-07-06
“I think it's a continued short term short to medium term growing higher for the dollar.”
Tim Graf · State Street (head of macro strategy EMEA) · YouTube ↗
…dollar is still again going back to some of the real money positioning data we have. It's still under owned. I think specs the price action last week after payrolls especially shows you spec money was probably long of dollars to a pretty extreme degree because that was not that bad of a payroll report and the dollar got crushed on the day. So that kind of tells you the point of paying short term was the positions were overweight. But that's not the case with longer term focused investors. They're still really underweight. And so I think the path of least resistance right now is that the U.S. labor market as they say it looks absolutely fine. U.S. consumption looks pretty good. Inflation is coming down. So you have this potential real income boost if the labor market stays relatively healthy that I think carries the U.S. in good stead relative to the rest of the world. So I think it's a continued short term short to medium term growing higher for the dollar. Is that Tim good morning. Is that dollar strength another tailwind for European equities as we look at that rotation. Yeah I think it can be. You know it's certainly on a relative basis they've underperformed the U.S. over the last couple of months. And I think that that can potentially help when you get a weaker currency against the dollar and being so sensitive to it. Yeah. And in terms of the rotation then where do we look in Europe to benefit from that. I mean part of the rotation maybe is into Europe and away from some of the U.S. and heavily played tech names in Asia. So maybe Europe just as a whole continues to benefit. We saw that a bit last week . Is it banks. Is it more cyclicals. What do we what do we think. The cyclical story I 'm a little less confident on just on kind of the dynamics with energy prices lately and…From: this video · 4 claims mined from it
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