The Canadian read: jobs, banks, energy buildout, and the Buy Canada shift.
The count, last 30 days: 1 bullish, 6 bearish. The tape leans bearish. A count, not a verdict.
The tape
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bullishbearishclaims filed per week
What the people who move markets are saying about this, in their own
words. These are views on the record, not scored bets: when a call here grows a number
and a deadline, it moves to the scoreboard. Newest first.
Bearishleaning · 2026-09-09
Susan Schwab (former USTR, Mayer Brown) expects US-Canada trade relations to stay rocky for months to a couple of years while common interests endure
I think we're in for a rocky time over the next several months, maybe the next couple years.
Brendan Murray (Bloomberg trade) tells Francine Lacqua the US-Canada tariff fight is lopsided: Canada can only retaliate so far while the US can keep escalating.
Canada can only retaliate so much. The U.S. can escalate and escalate and escalate.
Drew Fagan tells BNN Bloomberg that the US-Canada trade war is in an escalating spiral with no negotiations in sight and US counter-counter tariffs likely.
We're in a spiral right now. There's no talk of negotiations, and let's remember the negotiations that the U.S. offered over the course of the last six, nine months, it was effectively a take it or leave it offer.
Drew Fagan tells BNN Bloomberg that only economic pain on both sides will bring the US and Canada back to the table, and Canadians are currently primed to fight.
I think pain on both sides. Canadians, the polling shows are primed for a fight.
Drew Fagan tells BNN Bloomberg that a spiraling trade war will hurt Canada more than the US and the tit-for-tat will continue for a while before sanity prevails.
We're a medium-sized economy. They're a super-sized economy, but there's going to be tit for tat for tit for tat for a while, I think
Sylvain Charlebois tells BNN the world is heading for a shortage of dairy proteins, a big export opportunity Canada should reform supply management to capture.
because right now if you look at around the world, we're going to be short of dairy proteins. There are great opportunities out there.
Steven MacKinnon (Canada's Minister of Transport) tells BNN he is very optimistic about the Canadian steel sector, citing enormous appetite as Canada diversifies markets and applications away from the US.
We have a lot of reasons to be very, very optimistic for the steel sector. There is an enormous appetite out there
Discussing the Trump administration's new Section 338 (1930 Tariff Act) threat of 50 percent tariffs on about $20 billion of Canadian goods starting in 30 days: 'So that would essentially shut down, uh, the flow of those, of that $20 billion in Canadian shipments to the U S.' @7:30. He also predicts a legal fight: 'Trump is going to get sued over this, uh, if they go, if they do go into effect' @9:30, and says the 301 forced-labor tariffs replacing the global 10 percent tariff 'are coming, uh, within days' @10:43.
“and that 50% tariff is essentially a prohibitive tariff. You're not going to buy anything, uh, that has a 50% tariff on it.”
Clip follows news the US hit $20 billion of Canadian goods with an additional 50% tariff; she notes the timing 'is really interesting' @2:03 since USMCA review talks are underway in Mexico City this week with Mexico but not Canada, and the administration has targeted Canadian provincial alcohol rules since April.
“But I do think that part of this is about trying to get Canada back to the negotiating table as part of those broader negotiations.”
Reacting to a top-of-the-hour headline that the US will impose a 50 percent tariff on Canadian products in 30 days (energy excepted) @5:44. Calls it 'really concerning' @5:58 and notes Canada's integrated electricity, natural gas, oil and refined products give it 'the option to perhaps use that as a weapon if they chose to' @7:07.
“the U.S. is energy independent because of Canada. Right. Canada is basically held hostage by the United States. They only really have one outlet which means that the Canadians need to start building infrastructure away from the United States.”
Michelle Brouhard · Energy market commentator; self-describes as a trader who has not traded the market in a few months · Bloomberg ↗
Frames the whole EWY/India allocation as an exit from Canada and partially from the US; he does note one Canadian positive, that high global gas prices 'plays well, I think, for Canada, which produces gas' @1:37.
“trying to diversify our clients away from what we believe is a very sour economic environment in Canada, and one in the US that still has some risk to it”
Vacancy 'has come down a lot, and rather rapidly' @0:32 especially downtown; 'the speed of return to office has really surprised everyone' @0:54 and versus a year ago 'it's really night and day in terms of the demand for office' @1:08; on supply, 'there's really nothing in the pipeline' @1:28 and new starts would land 'in the 2030s' @1:45.
“So I think in the short term, we see the market tightening up just because it's not an area of real estate that can turn on a dime and add 10 million square feet of new supply very quickly.”
Asked whether CRE companies once seen 'at risk' are 'doing just fine now'; his mechanism is rates: 'we've had eight, nine rate cuts since then. Borrowing costs are back at a pretty normal level' @3:25 and there is 'a tailwind that wasn't there even a couple of years ago' @3:36.
“We're seeing a recovery, not just in office real estate, but in the warehouse and logistics market, in the hospitality market, pick your area of real estate, and there's actually, you can paint a picture of recovery there I think.”
Her closing editorial on Canada's Saudi shift: 'Deals worth more than a billion are just the beginning' @4:21 and 'It's easy to imagine that Riyadh's trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund is the real prize for Canada, making the federal government's targets for foreign investment easier to meet' @4:24; she acknowledges the soft-power risk but notes engagement-changes-behavior 'never worked before' @5:36.
“My takeaway, pining for the past is never a good idea, but pining for a past that didn't work is even worse.”