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Jayati Bhardwaj
TD Securities (head of FX strategy)
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Bhardwaj frames AI as a 'realization trade': economists including Fed Chair Warsh say AI is ultimately disinflationary, but she argues the near-term effect is inflationary due to the capex/spending surge, with lots of equity-rotation winners and losers.
“clearly in the near term, it's inflationary first because of all of the capex investment move, all of the spending going in that direction.”
Bhardwaj says the 'dollar smile' now looks like a 'smirk': despite resilient US growth and the Fed expected to hike soon, the 'hedge dollar trade' (foreigners buying US equities/Treasuries but hedging out dollar exposure) caps any rally; AI equity inflows have skyrocketed while the dollar barely bumps.
“the dollar is strengthening but really struggling to rally here. Any dollar move higher meets with a clear ceiling here because the dollar now needs a lot more boost”
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