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Illiana Jain
Westpac (international economist)
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Stated as conditional on wages: 'if we see that structural tightening in the labor market continuing to feed through to wages' @14:25; she frames the BoJ as heading to 'that terminal rate' for a post-pandemic economy that 'needs an interest rate that is higher than where it was prior to the pandemic' @13:42, with yen at ~162 and June CPI due Friday.
“we're likely to see the Bank of Japan hike twice more, coming to a terminal rate of 1.5% by the end of next year.”
Asked about Kimi K3 and Alibaba's Qwen; she adds Korea's near-term shield: Korean technology 'comes with a geopolitical security lens... They are a more secure partner to deal with than China' @17:51-18:01, though that edge 'might deteriorate' over the medium term as China builds trust with the West.
“And we've seen that when China decides to do something, it does a lot of it. We've seen that excess capacity play out in China. We've seen that overproduction occur in China. And I don't think that tech side will be any different.”
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