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HG
Hugh Gimber
J.P. Morgan Asset Management (global market strategist)
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
'flaw' = 'floor' (garble). SOX ~17% off its June high. Earlier: semis' earnings power 'remains absolutely rock solid' (@15:56) but hyperscaler capex guides 'need to go higher' (@17:16) - 2026 AI capex estimates already moved from ~$500B to ~$700B for the big five (@17:23-17:33), underpinning ~100% semi earnings-growth expectations. Teaser duplicate at 0:24 and 14:59; in-context occurrence filed.
“seeing a sharp reversal, this to me is a healthy correction. But it only finds a flaw once we get that confirmation that CAPEX plans are not just on track, but can continue to push higher”
Prompted by 'headlines over the past 24 hours around the progress that Chinese models are making' (@19:10): hardware names that 'can't compete on price' must 'compete with a top tier product' (@19:24). The vulnerability sits with semis that 'aren't the biggest and best or indeed aren't the cheapest' (@19:01).
“you still have to be focused on an up in quality approach because it's the mid tier that looks most vulnerable to disruption coming out of China”
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