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Miriam Wheeler
Goldman Sachs
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Miriam Wheeler (Goldman Sachs) tells Bloomberg the heavy post-summer leveraged-finance pipeline (~$40bn Europe, similar US) will be absorbed efficiently given sidelined cash.
we think that it will be absorbed efficiently both here and in the United States.
Wheeler says ~$80bn of US non-IG AI issuance is done year to date and roughly $60bn more could come by end-2026, the market's biggest wild card.
if you think about U.S. AI issuance in the non-investment grade market year to date we've seen almost 80 billion dollars. When we look at the pipeline of AI issuance between now and the end of the year in the U.S. that could be another 60 or so to go
Wheeler says credit spreads sit within a few bp of multi-year tights but flags unknowns: software, global rates and AI supply volume.
they have been incredibly resilient. We have spreads within a couple basis points of their multi-year tights just speaking to the resilience of the market but there are a number of unknowns out there.
Wheeler says most 2026 AI non-IG deals now trade below issue price as heavy supply and rates weigh, though she thinks supply will still be absorbed.
we have seen some spread widening particularly in the A.I. space. Most of the deals that have been originated this year are now trading below their new issue price.
Wheeler thinks the AI build-out ultimately comes to Europe, whose ~10% share of the build-out could rise to 20-25%, bringing more local issuance.
we do think ultimately that comes to Europe and Europe today only has call it 10 percent of the A.I. build out. But we could see that get to 20 25 percent.
Wheeler says European AI-related non-IG issuance is muted near term but $5-10bn could print by end-2026 if mega projects get signed.
over the next couple of months in Europe it's probably somewhat muted. But I think that you could see you know five ten billion dollars happen maybe between now and the end of the year if we start to see some of these mega projects get inked.
Wheeler says AI-related debt issuance in Europe, including hyperscaler non-US IG deals, is mostly a 2027 story, likely if the capex build-out continues.
So I think it's really more of a 27 story for Europe. But we do think that it's likely coming if you see this capex build out in Europe continue.
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