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Keith Neumeyer
First Majestic Silver
First call on the ledger
No calls filed yet. Quotes in curly quotation marks are verbatim; everything
else is a labeled paraphrase. Every call links its original source. Before you trust the call, check the record.
Where they stand
Views on the record but not scoreable bets: no single number and deadline to grade. Shown in their exact words, never scored.
Silver ~$60 after $121 ATH; AUDIO CAVEAT: 'not quite honestly' garbled, bottom-is-in leg NOT-EVALUATED pending ears; 6-12mo consolidation reading safe; talks his book (silver miner CEO)
“I think we've seen the lows, not quite honestly. But we need to bounce around. You know, we had the market, the investors, institutional investors need to get used to this kind of new pricing regime that we're in. And it may take six months. It may take 12 months.”
His cleanest structural call: ~2024-2034 precious bull, the 50% drawdown a mid-cycle correction; book disclosed
“But, you know, I think we're two years into a 10 year bull market. I look at this bull market similar to what I said earlier about the 2002 to 2012 rally. And we're in one of those corrections.”
Asked point-blank if triple-digit silver returns: 'absolutely', timing withheld (his 2012 call took 14 years); book disclosed
“Well, absolutely we will. I don't know when. You know, I'm a little bit nervous about putting more predictions out there.”
Endorses a return to the ~$120 high as certain; the triple-test pattern is chart musing, not a filed target
“Oh yeah, and it will. It's just like, you know, we saw $50 three times on a third time broke through. You know, maybe we'll hit 120 again three times before it breaks through to go to some other level.”
MEANING GUARD: his long-standing normative fair-value doctrine (ratio SHOULD be 8), conditional on miners controlling pricing; not a forecast the ratio gets there
“we mine eight to one. So, for every one ounce of gold, eight ounces of silver is being mined worldwide by the mining industry. So, divide the current gold price by eight, and that should be the silver price.”
The title claim: habitual shorts flipping long while suppressing price; ALLEGATION FLAG on 'manipulation' (his claim, unproven; 2015 CFTC letter went nowhere per host)
“we do see some manipulation going on. You know, they're trying to knock it down as much as they can to, you know, load back up again for the next big rally, which is a little bit different, because normally they'd be on the short side. I think now they're getting on the long side.”
Personal-portfolio disclosure, buy-the-dip advice-flavored; book disclosed twice over (CEO + retail mint owner)
“So I like things on sale. And right now I'm in the market buying because, you know, stocks down 50%. And a lot of these companies are really solid, really good companies.”
AI/nuclear/robotics demand thesis; 'we need higher prices' is a producer's normative claim doubling as his direction view
“because this commodity is in demand, and with AI coming in, nuclear energy coming in, robotics, and, you know, all the fancy electronics that, you know, we want to produce, you know, this metal is needed. And with these deficits, you know, we need higher prices to try to close the gap on these deficits.”
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