The record on the people who call the market.

We write down what famous investors, strategists and pundits predict about markets and the economy: their exact words, with a hard deadline. When the date arrives, we score it in public. Ranked by how many calls have resolved.

The leaderboard

Pundit	Record	On the clock
Chamath Social Capital	4 of 15 correct	–
Tom Lee Fundstrat Global Advisors	3 of 12 correct	10
Cathie Wood ARK Invest	3 of 5 correct	9
RP Raoul Pal Real Vision / Global Macro Investor	0 of 3 correct	–
Geoff Kendrick Standard Chartered	1 of 2 correct	1
TM The Market Prediction & betting markets (composite)	0 of 2 correct	–
Gary Black The Future Fund	1 of 1 correct	–
Ron Baron Baron Capital	1 of 1 correct	1
Greg Boutle BNP Paribas	1 of 1 correct	–
Bryn Talkington Requisite Capital Partners	1 of 1 correct	–
Tim Scott U.S. Senate (Banking Committee chairman)	1 of 1 correct	–
MH Matt Hougan Bitwise	0 of 1 correct	1
AH Arthur Hayes Maelstrom / BitMEX co-founder	0 of 1 correct	1
Mike Novogratz Galaxy Digital	0 of 1 correct	–
PL PlanB Stock-to-flow author (pseudonymous)	0 of 1 correct	–
AT Antoni Trenchev Nexo	0 of 1 correct	–

Records shown as a fraction on purpose: with this few resolved calls, a percentage would mislead. A hit and a miss get the same prominence here.

On the clock

Calls written down and dated, not yet resolved. The deadline does the judging.

On the record

Beyond the scored calls: 92 claims in their exact words, grouped by the question being argued. All topics →